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FINAL+1WSH
CHW

CHW

59-102

5
6
WSH

WSH

66-95

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
24,360 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

CHW 5 · WSH 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0004000015
WSH000200316

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    48
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 90
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 89
    410
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 88
    93
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 88
    44
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 87
    412
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Chicago White Sox, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW59-102
5
6
WSH66-95
CHW59-102·WSH66-95
CHW

CHW

59-102

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-55010001
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-44110001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
3-44132101
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.381
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44010001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-33112102
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44010002
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
0-33000000
D. HillD. Hill★RF
2-44021001
SPRINT29.294
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000001
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-11000001
Team11-363651152112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GilbertT. Gilbert★RP
1.2200010
S. BurkeS. BurkeSP
4.12211101
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
0.1222001
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.1211101
M. VasilM. VasilRP
1.0011210
C. BooserC. BooserRP
0.1100000
Team8.09654123
WSH

WSH

66-95

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
3-55132102
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-55000002
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-33122111
SPRINT29.395
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
1-44010001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33100011
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000002
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT29.899
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33112111
SPRINT29.496
Team9-34346963412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
6.0644162
J. FernandezJ. FernandezRP
1.0000020
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.2200010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
0.1000000
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0311030
Team9.011551122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Burke
    80 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.0 mph·35% whiff
    • KC
      38%·83.1 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·88.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      3%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      48%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      26%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Wilson
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • ST
      62%·81.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Booser
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      83%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.1 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    73 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·79.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      4%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Fernandez
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      62%·97.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      38%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      70%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

5

Runs

6

2

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Sep 26CHWCHW10@WSHWSH9
Sep 27CHWCHW5@WSHWSH6today
Sep 28CHWCHW8@WSHWSH0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 26CHWCHW10@WSHWSH9
Sep 27CHWCHW5@WSHWSH6today
Sep 28CHWCHW8@WSHWSH0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Top reliever10-K game

4.1 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat CHW 6-5. Young's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Win probability

WSH vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 74% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (386 feet), Teel scored.

WSHBottom 7th Inning · 4-4
+33pp→ 54% WP

Young · homered to left (380 feet), Nuñez scored.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 5-6
+16pp→ 100% WP

Meidroth · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0004000015
WSH00020031—6

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · WSH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
2

Inn 4

Montgomery 2

Lile 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Young 2

0
1

Inn 8

Wood 1

1

Inn 9

Hill 1

CHW
WSH

Play-by-play · 566 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  2. T9

    Meidroth struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

    +16pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  6. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Chase Meidroth

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  7. T9

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  8. T9

    Hill reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Sosa to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

    −10pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  11. T9

    Sosa to second on wild pitch by Ferrer, Lee to third on wild pitch by Ferrer.

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  12. T9

    Sosa to second on wild pitch by Ferrer, Lee to third on wild pitch by Ferrer.

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  15. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Derek Hill

    · ·

    CHW 5·WSH 6

  16. T9

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  17. T9

    M. Taylor struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

    +8pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  21. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Michael Taylor

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  22. T9

    M. Taylor hit for Fletcher

    ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  23. T9

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  24. T9

    Sosa singled to right, Lee to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

    −6pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  28. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  29. T9

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

  30. T9

    Mead struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·WSH 6

    +6pp

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

5

Runs

6

11

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

18

TB

19

2

HR

3

1

BB

4

12

K

12

12

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

WSH vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.9%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.