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FINAL+8CHW
MIN

MIN

59-71

0
8
CHW

CHW

47-83

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
18,723 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 0 · CHW 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000000000
CHW340000108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    93
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 92
    116
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 92
    99
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 91
    44
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 90
    156
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 89
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Minnesota Twins, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Luke Keaschall

Luke Keaschall

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Kyle Teel

Kyle Teel

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN59-71
0
8
CHW47-83
MIN59-71·CHW47-83
MIN

MIN

59-71

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-22000010
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000002
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-33010001
SPRINT26.326
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000012
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.225
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-33000011
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000001
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald3B
0-11000000
M. GasperM. GasperC
0-11000000
Team5-32320500410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
5.0977111
P. OhlP. OhlRP
3.0310030
Team8.01287141
CHW

CHW

47-83

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-44220001
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-33210011
SPRINT28.381
K. TeelK. Teel★C
3-44232000
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44110001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44112100
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44023000
SPRINT24.12
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000000
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44010000
B. BaldwinB. BaldwinLF
0-11000000
Team12-36368127114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
4.2200360
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.1100110
M. VasilM. VasilRP
2.0200020
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
1.0000010
Team9.05004100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    88 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.7 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      20%·87.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      14%·90.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
  • P. Ohl
    46 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      41%·80.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      41%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • KN
      2%·78.5 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    89 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      22%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      46%·83.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      29%·89.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. González
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      25%·79.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

0

Runs

8

2

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8today

Season series

MIN leads series 5-4

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8today
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MINMIN
L. Keaschall

L. Keaschall

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 7 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
K. Teel

K. Teel

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 8-0.

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 66% WP

Vargas · singled to center, Tauchman to third.

CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+11pp→ 82% WP

Quero · singled to center, Teel scored and Vargas scored, Robert Jr. to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000000000
CHW34000010—8

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · CHW won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Quero 2

0
4

Inn 2

Montgomery 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Quero 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 562 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  2. T9

    Martin flied out to center.

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  7. T9

    Wikelman Gonzalez pitches to Austin Martin

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  8. T9

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  9. T9

    Julien lined out to center.

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  11. T9

    Wikelman Gonzalez pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  12. T9

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  13. T9

    Lewis struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  21. T9

    Wikelman Gonzalez pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  22. T9

    González relieved Vasil

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  25. B8

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  26. B8

    Baldwin grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 0·CHW 8

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

0

Runs

8

5

Hits

12

2

Errors

0

8

TB

15

0

HR

1

4

BB

1

10

K

4

19

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.3low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.8± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.