HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5CHW
CHW

CHW

35-65

7
2
PIT

PIT

39-61

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
19,631 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

CHW

league avg

PIT

PIT

.737

OPS

.717

.737

.325

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.76

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.99

4.29

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.22

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 7 · PIT 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW4001200007
PIT0100000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. HeaneyPIT−44.9pp
  2. 2M. VargasCHW+29.6pp
  3. 3A. SlaterCHW+19.3pp

CHW · top performer

CHW
Mike Tauchman

Mike Tauchman

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

3B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Meidroth2B
.2415120001
A. SlaterRF
.2364100011
E. QueroC
.2684100010
M. Vargas3B
.2225223100
M. TauchmanRF
.2893123101
L. Robert Jr.CF
.2014110001
L. Sosa2B
.2704000001
C. MontgomerySS
.2634011002
M. TaylorRF
.2244020001
Team377107228

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. CivaleSP
6.03101694
G. TaylorRP
1.00001323
D. AltavillaRP
1.00000110
M. VasilRP
1.01110116
Team9.0421211143

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. Horwitz1B
.2254010001
A. McCutchenDH
.2554110000
B. ReynoldsLF
.2294000001
N. Gonzales3B
.2752111020
O. CruzCF
.2143001003
J. BartC
.2323000003
J. SuwinskiRF
.1053000002
K. Hayes3B
.2373010000
I. Kiner-Falefa2B
.2763000001
Team292420211

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. HeaneySP
4.09772182
Y. RamirezRP
3.01000537
D. SantanaRP
1.00000212
D. BednarRP
1.00000014
Team9.0107728145

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • A. Civale
    94 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      29%·88.9 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.8 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      23%·77.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      1%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      52%·99.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      35%·96.1 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      9%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      4%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      56%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      40%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·94.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.3 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • A. Heaney
    82 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·89.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      16%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      12%·72.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·78.8 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    37 pitches·49% CSW
    • FF
      49%·96.7 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.8 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      5%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      43%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • SL
      58%·87.6 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

4

7

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 3-0

Jul 18CHWCHW10@PITPIT1
Jul 19CHWCHW10@PITPIT4
Jul 20CHWCHW7@PITPIT2today

Season series

CHW win series 3-0

Jul 18CHWCHW10@PITPIT1
Jul 19CHWCHW10@PITPIT4
Jul 20CHWCHW7@PITPIT2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 1st Inning

CHWCHW
M. Tauchman

M. Tauchman

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
N. Gonzales

N. Gonzales

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

Y. Ramirez

Y. Ramirez

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

CHW beat PIT 7-2. Vargas's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+25pp→ 70% WP

Vargas · homered to center (411 feet), Meidroth scored and Slater scored.

PITBottom 2nd Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 26% WP

N. Gonzales · doubled to left, N. Gonzales safe at third on throwing error by left fielder M. Taylor.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+7pp→ 81% WP

Robert Jr. · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW4001200007
PIT0100000012

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · PIT won 2

4
0

Inn 1

Vargas 3

0
1

Inn 2

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Montgomery 1

2
0

Inn 5

Tauchman 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Gonzales 1

CHW
PIT

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  3. B9

    Cruz struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  10. B9

    Mike Vasil pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  11. B9

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  12. B9

    N. Gonzales grounded out to third, McCutchen scored.

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  16. B9

    Mike Vasil pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  18. B9

    Reynolds grounded out to shortstop, McCutchen to third.

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  23. B9

    Mike Vasil pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  24. B9

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  25. B9

    McCutchen doubled to center.

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  29. B9

    Mike Vasil pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

  30. B9

    Vasil relieved Altavilla

    ·

    CHW 7·PIT 1

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

7

Runs

2

10

Hits

4

1

Errors

1

20

TB

6

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

8

K

11

16

LOB

9

Player projections

PIT vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.8± 3.2low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.4± 2.9low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Jake MangumPIT
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.0± 1.6low

Total bases

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    2.3± 3.5low
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Colson MontgomeryCHW
    1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
    0.7± 1.7low
  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.5± 3.0low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.6%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.