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FINAL+1NYY
BAL

BAL

75-87

2
3
NYY

NYY

94-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
45,004 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BAL 2 · NYY 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0002000002
NYY100100013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesNYY win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Baltimore Orioles, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL75-87
2
3
NYY94-68
BAL75-87·NYY94-68
BAL

BAL

75-87

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-44010000
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
2-44121100
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33111110
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.662
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-33000010
SPRINT26.632
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
0-44000001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22000022
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-44000003
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000000
Team5-3131252246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
4.0522081
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0000200
D. KremerD. KremerSP
1.1000120
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.1111021
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
0.1000000
Team8.06333122
NYY

NYY

94-68

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000012
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44222200
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-33011011
SPRINT23.81
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000003
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-33010001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000003
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-11000011
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.2B
0-11000001
Team6-29293632312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
5.0322222
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0100100
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000020
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000120
Team9.0522462

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    69 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      43%·87.4 mph·71% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.6 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·85.1 mph·25% whiff
  • K. Akin
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Kremer
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      25%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Strowd
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      80%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.6 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • L. Gil
    79 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.6 mph·24% whiff
    • CH
      32%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FS
      82%·81.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      42%·92.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      32%·77.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·97.5 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      53%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      57%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      43%·94.9 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 5-1

Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3today

Season series

NYY win series 9-4

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 8th Inning

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BAL 3-2. Rice's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

NYY vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 52% WP

Henderson · homered to right center (355 feet).

BALBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+12pp→ 38% WP

Rice · lined out to second.

NYYBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+26pp→ 90% WP

Rice · homered to left center (401 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0002000002
NYY10010001—3

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · NYY won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
1

Inn 4

Westburg 1

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Rice 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
NYY

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  2. T9

    Cowser struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  7. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  8. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  9. T9

    Beavers struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

    +9pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  14. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Dylan Beavers

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  15. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  16. T9

    Mountcastle grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mateo out at second, Mountcastle safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Chisholm Jr..BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

    +5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  22. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    · ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  23. T9

    Mateo ran for Rutschman

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  24. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  25. T9

    Rutschman walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

    −10pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·NYY 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

11

TB

12

2

HR

2

4

BB

3

6

K

12

18

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    11
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    173
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 5, 25sim 93
    63
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 92
    234
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 11, 25sim 92
    62
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 92
    62
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs