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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
DET

DET

87-74

2
1
BOS

BOS

88-73

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,478 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 2 · BOS 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000200002
BOS0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nate Eaton

Nate Eaton

OF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET87-74
2
1
BOS88-73
DET87-74·BOS88-73
DET

DET

87-74

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
2-44022000
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000002
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000002
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33110010
SPRINT27.765
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
1-33010011
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-22000012
Team6-32322620310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
4.1511070
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.0100020
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.1100010
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.1000020
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0000010
Team9.07110130
BOS

BOS

88-73

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000003
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT2872
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT26.326
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-44000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.790
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44010001
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
1-33010001
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-33011001
Team7-34341710013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
5.0422170
P. TolleP. TolleSP
1.0100010
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
3.0100220
Team9.06223100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • K. Montero
    76 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.4 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.7 mph·43% whiff
    • KC
      5%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      48%·88.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      47%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      40%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      64%·92.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      36%·81.9 mph·100% whiff
  • W. Vest
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.6 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • C. Early
    86 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      24%·80.7 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.2 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    49 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·80.0 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Tolle
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      75%·99.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      8%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Sep 26DETDET3@BOSBOS4
Sep 27DETDET2@BOSBOS1today
Sep 28DETDET3@BOSBOS4

Season series

DET leads series 4-1

May 12BOSBOS2@DETDET14
May 13BOSBOS9@DETDET10
May 14BOSBOS5@DETDET6
Sep 26DETDET3@BOSBOS4
Sep 27DETDET2@BOSBOS1today
Sep 28DETDET3@BOSBOS4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 5th Inning

DETDET
J. Jones

J. Jones

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H

BOSBOS
N. Eaton

N. Eaton

OF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat BOS 2-1. Jones's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Sogard · singled to center, Rafaela scored, Narváez to third.

DETTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+23pp→ 58% WP

Jones · singled to left, Báez scored and Dingler scored, Jones to second, Meadows to third.

BOSBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 54% WP

Refsnyder · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000200002
BOS0100000001

Period scoring

DET won 1 · BOS won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Sogard 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Jones 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

DET
BOS

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 2·BOS 1

  2. B9

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  3. B9

    Narváez grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  7. B9

    Will Vest pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  8. B9

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  9. B9

    Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

    −8pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  15. B9

    Will Vest pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  16. B9

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  17. B9

    Rafaela grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

    −10pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  19. B9

    Will Vest pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  20. B9

    Vest relieved Holton

    ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 2·BOS 1

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 2·BOS 1

  23. T9

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  24. T9

    Báez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

    +4pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  28. T9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Javier Baez

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  29. T9

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

  30. T9

    Ibáñez reached on infield single to shortstop, Dingler to second.

    · ·

    DET 2·BOS 1

    −2pp

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

2

Runs

1

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

6

TB

7

0

HR

0

3

BB

0

10

K

13

12

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.2%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    301
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 95
    62
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 94
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 94
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 94
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 93
    64
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs