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FINAL+2PIT
PIT

PIT

60-76

4
2
BOS

BOS

75-61

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,344 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · BOS 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000030104
BOS0001100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    58
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 94
    155
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 92
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 92
    301
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 92
    232
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 92
    12
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen

DH

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Roman Anthony

Roman Anthony

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT60-76
4
2
BOS75-61
PIT60-76·BOS75-61
PIT

PIT

60-76

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-44010011
SPRINT28.483
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-55120001
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-55110003
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-33112020
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
3-33031010
SPRINT27.662
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
0-22000001
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33001003
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
0-22000000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-44000001
J. BartJ. BartC
0-11000000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
1-22010000
O. CruzO. CruzCF
1-22010001
Team10-363641040411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
6.0721161
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.0100000
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0100010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000120
Team9.0921291
BOS

BOS

75-61

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-44121100
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000003
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
3-44030001
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
0-33000011
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-44020002
SPRINT28.790
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-44000000
Team9-3434291129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. TolleP. Tolle★SP
5.1322280
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
0.2211010
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0200110
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.1211000
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
0.2000010
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.0100100
Team9.010444110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    95 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      47%·98.1 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      16%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • SL
      62%·87.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.8 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      75%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Moreta
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      56%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.6 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • P. Tolle
    84 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.2 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      6%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      2%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      65%·91.0 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      45%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      64%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·83.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      9%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SL
      57%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      43%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·75.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·84.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

4

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 29PITPIT4@BOSBOS2today
Aug 30PITPIT10@BOSBOS3
Aug 31PITPIT2@BOSBOS5

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Aug 29PITPIT4@BOSBOS2today
Aug 30PITPIT10@BOSBOS3
Aug 31PITPIT2@BOSBOS5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 6th Inning

PITPIT
A. McCutchen

A. McCutchen

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
R. Anthony

R. Anthony

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

P. Tolle

P. Tolle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat BOS 4-2. Pham's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

McCutchen · hit a ground rule double, Pham to third.

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 71% WP

Rafaela · reached on infield single to third, Yoshida scored on throwing error by third baseman Kiner-Falefa, Rafaela to second, González to third.

PITTop 6th Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 45% WP

Pham · doubled to center, Reynolds scored and N. Gonzales scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000030104
BOS0001100002

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · BOS won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Rafaela 1

0
1

Inn 5

Anthony 1

3
0

Inn 6

Pham 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Davis 1

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
BOS

Play-by-play · 562 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Wong fouled out to first.

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Connor Wong

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  7. B9

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Rafaela struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

    −7pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  12. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  13. B9

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  14. B9

    Sogard walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

    +6pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  19. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Nick Sogard

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  20. B9

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  21. B9

    González struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

    −6pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  26. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  27. B9

    Santana relieved Mattson

    ·

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  28. B9

    Bart as designated hitter.

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·BOS 2

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·BOS 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

2

10

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

14

TB

12

0

HR

1

4

BB

2

11

K

9

20

LOB

17

Player projections

BOS vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    65.2%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.5%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483