MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5LAD

LAD

93-69

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

45,658 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.8± 1.7high
Andy PagesLAD
2.0± 1.3high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
1.1± 1.6low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

SEA

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.719

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.318

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.32

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.57

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.18

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 6 · SEA 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	2	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	6
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.282	5	2	3	1	1	0	2
M. BettsSS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.295	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.199	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
A. PagesCF	.272	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
E. Hernández1B	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. KimSS	.280	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.262	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.204	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	6	8	6	3	2	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.282

.258

.295

.247

.199

.272

.203

.280

.224

.262

.204

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. KershawSP	5.1	4	0	0	1	7	94
L. KnackSP	3.2	1	1	1	1	7	55
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	14	149

Player

C. KershawSP

5.1

L. KnackSP

3.2

Team

9.0

149

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.238	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. RaleighC	.247	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.189	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
M. GarverC	.209	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. RaleyRF	.202	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J.P. CrawfordSS	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. FordC	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	0	2	14

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. MillerSP	4.0	5	4	4	2	2	70
C. FergusonRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	18
E. BazardoRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	20
L. JacksonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	23
Team	9.0	8	6	6	2	10	156

Team

LAD

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.