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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
SD

SD

85-71

3
2
CHW

CHW

58-98

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
24,205 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 3 · CHW 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0210000003
CHW0000002002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 99
    72
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 98
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    13
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Brooks Baldwin

Brooks Baldwin

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD85-71
3
2
CHW58-98
SD85-71·CHW58-98
SD

SD

85-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-55121102
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33010010
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.688
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010003
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.735
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
3-44030001
SPRINT26.735
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT28.891
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
0-33000001
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-11000000
Team10-363631021111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
5.0400440
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000020
K. HartK. HartRP
0.1122210
M. MillerM. MillerRP
0.2000210
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0000110
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000020
Team9.05229110
CHW

CHW

58-98

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT2744
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-33000023
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44010011
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44011011
SPRINT28.381
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-33010011
SPRINT24.12
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-11010010
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
0-22000001
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
1-33110010
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000001
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-22000002
Team5-30302520911
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
4.0632041
M. VasilM. VasilRP
3.0300130
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0000020
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.1100010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
0.2000010
Team9.010321111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • M. King
    70 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      34%·93.5 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.6 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      1%·83.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Miller
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      63%·101.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      37%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      76%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Hart
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      54%·83.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      38%·92.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      67%·98.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      27%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      18%·98.7 mph·100% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    63 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.8 mph·18% whiff
    • KC
      27%·81.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    42 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      48%·95.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.2 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      25%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.3 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      22%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      43%·88.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Sep 19SDSD3@CHWCHW4
Sep 20SDSD7@CHWCHW3
Sep 21SDSD3@CHWCHW2today

Season series

SD wins series 2-1

Sep 19SDSD3@CHWCHW4
Sep 20SDSD7@CHWCHW3
Sep 21SDSD3@CHWCHW2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 2nd Inning

SDSD
R. O'Hearn

R. O'Hearn

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

CHWCHW
B. Baldwin

B. Baldwin

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H

How it ended

SD beat CHW 3-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 58% WP

Merrill · singled to right.

SDBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 78% WP

Quero · struck out swinging.

SDTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+12pp→ 78% WP

Machado · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0210000003
CHW0000002002

Period scoring

SD won 2 · CHW won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

O'Hearn 1

1
0

Inn 3

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Vargas 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
CHW

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 3·CHW 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  3. B9

    Vargas struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  8. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  10. B9

    Montgomery grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

    −6pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  15. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  16. B9

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  17. B9

    Teel struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

    −7pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  21. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Kyle Teel

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  22. B9

    Suarez relieved Peralta

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  23. B9

    Fermin catching.

    SD 3·CHW 2

  24. B9

    Cronenworth at second base.

    SD 3·CHW 2

  25. B9

    McCoy at shortstop.

    SD 3·CHW 2

  26. B9

    Arraez at first base.

    SD 3·CHW 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 3·CHW 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 3·CHW 2

  29. T9

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

  30. T9

    Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 2

    +4pp

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

2

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

13

TB

6

1

HR

0

1

BB

9

11

K

11

15

LOB

32

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    44.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.5%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.