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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9CHW
CHW

CHW

51-88

12
3
MIN

MIN

62-76

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
11,721 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 12 · MIN 3 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW01002243012
MIN1101000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

MIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Luke KeaschallMIN
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.3low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Edgar QueroCHW
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.8± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.9%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.2%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    912
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    92
    3(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 93
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 90
    411
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 89
    47
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 89
    207
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesCHW win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 12–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Andrew Benintendi

Andrew Benintendi

DH

2.800OPS

5-4

AB-H

3

R

5

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW51-88
12
3
MIN62-76
CHW51-88·MIN62-76
CHW

CHW

51-88

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-44000011
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-33211112
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-55111113
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-55210012
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-55210002
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
4-55345200
SPRINT26.632
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
3-44131010
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
1-55112002
B. RamosB. Ramos★3B
1-55012003
T. ElkoT. Elko1B
0-11000000
Team13-42421213124615
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
6.0633340
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0100020
B. WilsonB. WilsonRP
2.0000010
Team9.0733370
MIN

MIN

62-76

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44021000
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-44000003
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.457
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-33010011
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-33000010
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-22101010
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
1-44011000
Team7-3232373037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
5.0232371
T. HatchT. HatchRP
2.0865132
N. DavisN. DavisRP
1.0333031
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0000220
Team9.01312106154

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • D. Martin
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.2 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      20%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Wilson
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      24%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·85.9 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    85 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·92.6 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      31%·85.7 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Hatch
    64 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      27%·90.4 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      23%·89.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Davis
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.0 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      3%·76.0 mph·— whiff
    • SC
      3%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Kriske
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      48%·82.9 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      37%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

7

12

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

CHW win series 5-2

Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3today
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Season series

CHW lead series 6-5

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3today
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 5th Inning

CHWCHW
A. Benintendi

A. Benintendi

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.800 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 12-3. Ramos's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 5th Inning · 3-3
+19pp→ 51% WP

Ramos · doubled to right, Baldwin scored and Robertson scored.

CHWTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+16pp→ 65% WP

Mead · grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mead second, Montgomery to second, Montgomery safe at third on error by second baseman Martin.

CHWTop 7th Inning · 6-3
+14pp→ 89% WP

Teel · homered to right center (385 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW01002243012
MIN1101000003

Period scoring

CHW won 4 · MIN won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Larnach 1

1
1

Inn 2

Benintendi 1

Fitzgerald 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Gasper 1

2
0

Inn 5

Ramos 2

2
0

Inn 6

Benintendi 1

4
0

Inn 7

Robertson 2

3
0

Inn 8

Benintendi 3

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
MIN

Play-by-play · 642 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  3. B9

    Fitzgerald flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  6. B9

    Bryse Wilson pitches to Ryan Fitzgerald

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  7. B9

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  8. B9

    Gasper fouled out to third.

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  11. B9

    Bryse Wilson pitches to Mickey Gasper

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  12. B9

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  13. B9

    Outman lined out to center.

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  17. B9

    Bryse Wilson pitches to James Outman

    ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  18. B9

    Elko as designated hitter.

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  21. T9

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  22. T9

    Montgomery struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  29. T9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    CHW 12·MIN 3

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

12

Runs

3

13

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

26

TB

10

4

HR

0

6

BB

3

15

K

7

23

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 11 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597