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FINAL+4MIA
MIA

MIA

49-53

5
1
MIL

MIL

61-42

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
41,944 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 5 · MIL 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0010004005
MIL0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 92
    282
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 92
    212
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 92
    173
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 92
    287
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 92
    72
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 90
    70
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers

LF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA49-53
5
1
MIL61-42
MIA49-53·MIL61-42
MIA

MIA

49-53

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-55110004
SPRINT2872
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-55010001
SPRINT25.818
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44110011
SPRINT27.354
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-33211121
SPRINT2622
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
3-55132000
SPRINT28.381
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-00001010
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
0-44000001
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-22010021
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-44000003
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-11000001
Team8-33335841613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. QuantrillC. Quantrill★RP
5.0311041
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
1.0000010
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0100110
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0000010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000210
Team9.0411381
MIL

MIL

61-42

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000000
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000011
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-44111101
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.867
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-22010000
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-44000002
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.175
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000001
T. BlackT. BlackDH
0-11000010
A. SeiglerA. Seigler2B
0-11000001
Team4-3131141138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.0511291
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.1211110
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.2132200
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0000120
T. MyersT. MyersRP
1.0000010
Team9.08546131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • C. Quantrill
    65 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      22%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·78.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      54%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      12%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      39%·83.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      30%·97.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.7 mph·40% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      42%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      45%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      27%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • F. Peralta
    98 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      51%·95.2 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CS
      9%·74.6 mph·57% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.6 mph·25% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      56%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      46%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      69%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·80.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      80%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      10%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

3

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 25MIAMIA5@MILMIL1today
Jul 26MIAMIA7@MILMIL4
Jul 27MIAMIA2@MILMIL3

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jul 4MILMIL6@MIAMIA5
Jul 5MILMIL2@MIAMIA4
Jul 6MILMIL3@MIAMIA1
Jul 25MIAMIA5@MILMIL1today
Jul 26MIAMIA7@MILMIL4
Jul 27MIAMIA2@MILMIL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 7th Inning

MIAMIA
K. Stowers

K. Stowers

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

C. Quantrill

C. Quantrill

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat MIL 5-1. Lopez's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 67% WP

Chourio · homered to center (405 feet).

MILTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 66% WP

Wagaman · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Lopez out at home.

MIATop 7th Inning · 4-1
+30pp→ 88% WP

Lopez · doubled to center, Edwards scored, Stowers scored on fielding error by center fielder Perkins and Ramírez scored, Lopez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0010004005
MIL0001000001

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Stowers 1

0
1

Inn 4

Chourio 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Lopez 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
MIL

Play-by-play · 589 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  3. B9

    Perkins struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  12. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Blake Perkins

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  14. B9

    Black grounded out to pitcher, Collins to second, Yelich to third.

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  18. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Tyler Black

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  19. B9

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  20. B9

    Collins walked, Yelich to second.

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

    +2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  27. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Isaac Collins

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  28. B9

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

  29. B9

    Chourio lined out to center.

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

    −2pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 5·MIL 1

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

5

Runs

1

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

3

15

TB

9

1

HR

1

6

BB

3

13

K

8

19

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Tyler BlackMIL · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.5%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.