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FINAL+3CHW
CHW

CHW

53-88

11
8
MIN

MIN

62-78

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
13,188 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 11 · MIN 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW00301050211
MIN0005110018

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 4·Final/SeriesCHW win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 11–8.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Wallner

Matt Wallner

RF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW53-88
11
8
MIN62-78
CHW53-88·MIN62-78
CHW

CHW

53-88

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. QueroE. Quero★C
3-55230001
SPRINT24.12
K. TeelK. Teel★C
3-55334100
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44200003
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-22313111
SPRINT26.326
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-55022001
SPRINT26.838
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33011000
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
4-55040001
SPRINT2744
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-55000002
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
1-55110001
Team15-39391115102110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. EllardF. Ellard★RP
1.1200120
J. CannonJ. CannonSP
2.1555220
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
2.0522011
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
1.1000120
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100010
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.0211001
Team9.01588482
MIN

MIN

62-78

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
4-55241000
SPRINT28.688
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
3-55131000
SPRINT26.632
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-11000011
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
2-55121100
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-55000002
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33211121
SPRINT2622
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
3-44130010
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-55000003
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
1-44111001
M. GasperM. GasperC
1-33013000
Team15-40408158248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
5.0844170
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
1.0344021
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
1.0111000
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.0000010
N. DavisN. DavisRP
1.0321001
Team9.01511101102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • J. Cannon
    57 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      32%·86.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    41 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      34%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      39%·81.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Ellard
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • W. González
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      22%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      47%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      13%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.3 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    91 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.5 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.6 mph·56% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      8%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.0 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Adams
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      32%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Davis
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      48%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·79.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SC
      8%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      30%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      73%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

15

11

Runs

8

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 5-2

Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8today

Season series

CHW win series 8-5

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 7th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Cannon

J. Cannon

SP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
M. Wallner

M. Wallner

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 11-8. Teel's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+20pp→ 75% WP

Mead · doubled to center, Montgomery scored and Teel scored.

MINBottom 4th Inning · 3-5
+19pp→ 81% WP

Gasper · singled to center, Keaschall scored and Larnach scored.

CHWTop 7th Inning · 7-7
+25pp→ 47% WP

Teel · homered to right (413 feet), M. Taylor scored and Quero scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW00301050211
MIN0005110018

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · MIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Mead 2

0
5

Inn 4

Gasper 2

1
1

Inn 5

Montgomery 1

Wallner 1

0
1

Inn 6

Gasper 1

5
0

Inn 7

Teel 3

0
0

Inn 8

2
1

Inn 9

Montgomery 2

Clemens 1

CHW
MIN

Play-by-play · 699 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  3. B9

    Outman grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  6. B9

    Martin to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  7. B9

    Martin to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  11. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to James Outman

    · ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  12. B9

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  13. B9

    Martin singled to left.

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

    +0.8pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  17. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Austin Martin

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  18. B9

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  19. B9

    Wallner flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

    −1pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  26. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Matt Wallner

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  27. B9

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  28. B9

    Lewis flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

    −2pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

  30. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 11·MIN 8

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

11

Runs

8

15

Hits

15

1

Errors

1

26

TB

21

2

HR

2

1

BB

4

10

K

8

17

LOB

19

Player projections

MIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.8± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    52.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.3%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 26, 25sim 92
    410
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 91
    99
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 90
    412
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 88
    92
    3(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 87
    44
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 87
    2015
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs