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FINAL+2MIN
MIN

MIN

59-69

9
7
CHW

CHW

45-83

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
22,372 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 9 · CHW 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0004022019
CHW1001200307

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 9–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN59-69
9
7
CHW45-83
MIN59-69·CHW45-83
MIN

MIN

59-69

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-55121010
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-55011012
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44021010
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44010002
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-44200010
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33310020
SPRINT26.428
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-44100012
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
3-55234102
SPRINT27.251
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-55021002
SPRINT26.225
Team12-393991281710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
4.2844341
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.1100210
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000010
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
0.1133200
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.2200100
Team9.01277861
CHW

CHW

45-83

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-33110021
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-22101031
K. TeelK. Teel★C
2-44121012
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-55022002
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-55222100
SPRINT26.326
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
2-55020000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-22000010
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110010
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44121000
SPRINT24.12
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
B. BaldwinB. BaldwinLF
0-11000000
Team12-36367127186
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.0544451
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0322100
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
1.0120120
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.0100010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0211120
Team9.012977101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    93 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.1 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.4 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Topa
    32 pitches·16% CSW
    • ST
      34%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      28%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      33%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • CU
      29%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      6%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Sands
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      29%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      21%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.9 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • A. Civale
    91 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      25%·77.1 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      9%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. González
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SV
      14%·80.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      42%·83.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      42%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·84.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      28%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      36%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·83.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

12

9

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7today
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8

Season series

MIN leads series 5-2

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7today
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 42pp · Top 4th Inning

MINMIN
R. Lewis

R. Lewis

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

MIN beat CHW 9-7. Lewis's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+42pp→ 79% WP

Lewis · homered to left center (386 feet), Jeffers scored, Lee scored and Outman scored.

CHWBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+28pp→ 54% WP

Montgomery · homered to center (399 feet), Teel scored.

MINTop 9th Inning · 8-7
+41pp→ 87% WP

Lee · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0004022019
CHW1001200307

Period scoring

MIN won 4 · CHW won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Sosa 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
1

Inn 4

Lewis 4

Quero 1

0
2

Inn 5

Montgomery 2

2
0

Inn 6

Larnach 1

2
0

Inn 7

Lee 1

0
3

Inn 8

Vargas 1

1
0

Inn 9

Buxton 1

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 696 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  3. B9

    Meidroth grounded out to catcher.

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  9. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  10. B9

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  11. B9

    Baldwin fouled out to catcher.

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  17. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Brooks Baldwin

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  18. B9

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  19. B9

    Robert Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

    −4pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  22. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  23. B9

    Clemens at first base.

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  26. T9

    · ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  27. T9

    Larnach lined out to right.

    · ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

    +1pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

  30. T9

    Buxton stole second.

    · ·

    MIN 9·CHW 7

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

9

Runs

7

12

Hits

12

0

Errors

1

15

TB

16

1

HR

1

7

BB

8

10

K

6

24

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Randal GrichukCHW
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 92
    93
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 92
    90
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 91
    411
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 90
    285
    20(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 89
    1511
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 87
    1116
    20(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs