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FINAL+6ATL
WSH

WSH

64-93

5
11
ATL

ATL

74-83

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,248 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

WSH 5 · ATL 11 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH1001300005
ATL1151030011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 22·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Washington Nationals, 11–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Nasim Nunez

Nasim Nunez

2B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH64-93
5
11
ATL74-83
WSH64-93·ATL74-83
WSH

WSH

64-93

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
3-44231110
SPRINT29.899
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-55000003
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
2-55023000
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000001
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44111100
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-33010011
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33110012
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000000
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-33100002
Team8-3434585239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
2.0444431
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
0.1333100
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.2000120
S. LaoS. LaoRP
1.2311100
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0333220
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
2.1100010
Team8.0141111981
ATL

ATL

74-83

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-33111021
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-66000004
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-22212130
SPRINT26.838
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-22110000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44210010
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44222012
SPRINT26.632
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
3-44231010
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
3-55133000
SPRINT27.148
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-33011010
N. AllenN. AllenSS
1-33011001
Team14-3636111411198
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
5.0355262
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
1.0000110
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
3.0500020
Team9.0855392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Gore
    71 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      23%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    33 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      45%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    33 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      48%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      18%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Lao
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      48%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    29 pitches·34% CSW
    • CH
      41%·83.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      14%·75.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.5 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    80 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      45%·78.9 mph·32% whiff
    • FF
      34%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    43 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      28%·84.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      12%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·77.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Stratton
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·92.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

14

5

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11today
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Season series

ATL leads series 8-3

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11today
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

WSHWSH
N. Nunez

N. Nunez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 11-5.

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 73% WP

Acu · ña Jr. homered to left center (402 feet).

ATLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 82% WP

Harris II · doubled to right, Kim scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH1001300005
ATL11510300—11

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · ATL won 3

1
1

Inn 1

Acu 1

0
1

Inn 2

II 1

0
5

Inn 3

Baldwin 2

1
1

Inn 4

Crews 1

II 1

3
0

Inn 5

Chaparro 3

0
3

Inn 6

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
ATL

Play-by-play · 663 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  2. T9

    Adams popped out to second.

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  4. T9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Riley Adams

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  5. T9

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  6. T9

    Chaparro singled to left, Nuñez to third.

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  9. T9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Andres Chaparro

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  10. T9

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  11. T9

    Abrams flied out to shortstop.

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  13. T9

    Jose Suarez pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  14. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  15. T9

    Nuñez singled to center.

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  24. T9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Nasim Nunez

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  25. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  26. T9

    Hassell III struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·ATL 11

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

5

Runs

11

8

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

14

TB

19

2

HR

1

3

BB

9

9

K

8

16

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 10 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    62.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    92
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 93
    208
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 93
    205
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 92
    206
    21(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 91
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 90
    204
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs