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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9KC
MIN

MIN

62-80

2
11
KC

KC

73-69

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
21,771 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIN 2 · KC 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0020000002
KC5031020011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesKC wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Minnesota Twins, 11–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Edouard Julien

Edouard Julien

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Michael Massey

Michael Massey

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN62-80
2
11
KC73-69
MIN62-80·KC73-69
MIN

MIN

62-80

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44111001
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-44000001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-33000011
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.225
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-44010000
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
Team7-3434272027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
2.0455421
T. HatchT. HatchRP
3.0644100
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
2.0222130
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.0100010
Team8.0131111661
KC

KC

73-69

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33200021
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44111010
SPRINT27.765
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-44122011
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44123101
SPRINT241
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-33200022
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
2-55220001
SPRINT27.148
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
3-55132000
SPRINT2872
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-44012000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44111000
M. MasseyM. Massey2B
1-11010000
Team13-3737111311166
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
7.0622140
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
1.0000120
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0100010
Team9.0722270

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Hatch
    66 pitches·14% CSW
    • FC
      27%·89.9 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      15%·92.3 mph·14% whiff
  • J. Ryan
    62 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.2 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.1 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Kriske
    37 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      38%·82.4 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      8%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      42%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.3 mph·— whiff

KC

  • S. Kolek
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.2 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      33%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      22%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Avila
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      23%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

13

2

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 5-2

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11today
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1

Season series

KC leads series 7-5

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11today
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MINMIN
E. Julien

E. Julien

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

B. Kriske

B. Kriske

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

KCKC
M. Massey

M. Massey

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat MIN 11-2.

Win probability

KC vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 75% WP

Pasquantino · doubled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Garcia to third.

MINTop 3rd Inning · 1-5
+7pp→ 20% WP

Buxton · tripled to center, Outman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0020000002
KC50310200—11

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · KC won 4

0
5

Inn 1

Perez 3

0
0

Inn 2

2
3

Inn 3

Buxton 1

Isbel 1

0
1

Inn 4

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Loftin 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
KC

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  2. T9

    Outman flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  4. T9

    Sam Long pitches to James Outman

    · ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  5. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  6. T9

    Lee singled to right.

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  11. T9

    Sam Long pitches to Brooks Lee

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  12. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  13. T9

    Gasper lined out to third.

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  20. T9

    Sam Long pitches to Mickey Gasper

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  21. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  22. T9

    Julien struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

  30. T9

    Sam Long pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    MIN 2·KC 11

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

11

7

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

10

TB

21

0

HR

1

2

BB

6

7

K

6

15

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.9%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    205
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    208
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    202
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 22, 25sim 94
    205
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 93
    204
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 92
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs