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FINAL+3KC
WSH

WSH

47-71

4
7
KC

KC

59-60

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
17,568 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

WSH 4 · KC 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH2000200004
KC020004017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    205
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 94
    209
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 93
    48
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 93
    92
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 11·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Washington Nationals, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Paul DeJong

Paul DeJong

3B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Nick Loftin

Nick Loftin

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH47-71
4
7
KC59-60
WSH47-71·KC59-60
WSH

WSH

47-71

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44220010
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-55000003
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
2-44122111
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-55112100
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT25.411
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-33010011
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.395
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000001
B. HouseB. House3B
0-11000001
Team9-3636494249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
5.0744331
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0222101
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000020
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
0.1111100
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
0.2000110
Team8.01077662
KC

KC

59-60

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33001011
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55020001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000000
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-33210011
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44222101
SPRINT241
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
3-44031000
SPRINT26.225
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000011
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-11111020
SPRINT2872
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33112111
SPRINT26.941
Team10-30307107266
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FalterB. Falter★RP
4.0322351
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0522021
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0000010
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0100010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000100
Team9.0944492

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    88 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      42%·98.0 mph·11% whiff
    • KC
      25%·85.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      5%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.0 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      5%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      33%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·90.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·80.1 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • B. Falter
    76 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.7 mph·24% whiff
    • SV
      22%·80.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      4%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.1 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      3%·82.6 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      29%·86.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

4

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Aug 11WSHWSH4@KCKC7today
Aug 12WSHWSH5@KCKC8
Aug 13WSHWSH8@KCKC7

Season series

KC leads series 1-0

Aug 11WSHWSH4@KCKC7today
Aug 12WSHWSH5@KCKC8
Aug 13WSHWSH8@KCKC7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 6th Inning

WSHWSH
P. DeJong

P. DeJong

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

KCKC
N. Loftin

N. Loftin

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Falter

B. Falter

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

KC beat WSH 7-4. Perez's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

KC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 5th Inning · 4-2
+24pp→ 66% WP

DeJong · homered to center (418 feet), Wood scored.

KCBottom 6th Inning · 4-4
+27pp→ 64% WP

Perez · homered to left (404 feet), Garcia scored.

KCBottom 6th Inning · 4-6
+26pp→ 86% WP

Isbel · homered to right (397 feet), Loftin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH2000200004
KC02000401—7

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · KC won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Bell 2

0
2

Inn 2

Frazier 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

DeJong 2

0
4

Inn 6

Perez 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Yastrzemski 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
KC

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  2. T9

    Bell grounded out to third.

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  8. T9

    DeJong to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  9. T9

    DeJong to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  11. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Josh Bell

    · ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  12. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  13. T9

    DeJong walked.

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

    −0.7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  20. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Paul DeJong

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  21. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  22. T9

    Abrams flied out to right.

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

    +1pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  25. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  26. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  27. T9

    Wood grounded out to first.

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

    +2pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·KC 7

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

KC

Home

4

Runs

7

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

17

TB

16

2

HR

2

4

BB

6

9

K

6

21

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

KC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.3%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.7%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.