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FINAL+3KC
WSH

WSH

47-72

5
8
KC

KC

60-60

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
19,334 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

WSH 5 · KC 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000112105
KC103003108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    92
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    208
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 96
    204
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 22, 25sim 93
    205
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 92
    209
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 92
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Washington Nationals, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Riley Adams

Riley Adams

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH47-72
5
8
KC60-60
WSH47-72·KC60-60
WSH

WSH

47-72

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-55121000
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-55121000
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000010
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-44111001
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000011
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
2-44120001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44011000
SPRINT29.395
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44011000
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-44110001
Team10-36365105024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ParkerM. Parker★RP
5.1255331
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.2222001
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0211130
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0000200
Team8.0688662
KC

KC

60-60

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-22200021
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-22210020
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-33125100
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
1-44111000
SPRINT26.735
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-33112110
SPRINT27.765
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-44000002
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-33000011
T. TolbertT. Tolbert★2B
1-44110000
Team6-2929868266
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
5.2522230
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0322000
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.1000000
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0211010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000000
Team9.01055240

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Parker
    87 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.3 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.4 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      67%·90.8 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      23%·77.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      10%·80.8 mph·— whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    79 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      28%·79.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Long
    25 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      50%·93.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

5

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Aug 11WSHWSH4@KCKC7
Aug 12WSHWSH5@KCKC8today
Aug 13WSHWSH8@KCKC7

Season series

KC leads series 2-0

Aug 11WSHWSH4@KCKC7
Aug 12WSHWSH5@KCKC8today
Aug 13WSHWSH8@KCKC7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
R. Adams

R. Adams

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat WSH 8-5.

Win probability

KC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 67% WP

Abrams · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Wood out at second.

KCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+16pp→ 92% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right (361 feet), Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.

KCBottom 6th Inning · 2-4
+6pp→ 91% WP

Witt Jr. · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000112105
KC10300310—8

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · KC won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Pasquantino 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Garc 1

1
3

Inn 6

DeJong 1

India 2

2
1

Inn 7

Wood 1

Pasquantino 1

1
0

Inn 8

Lile 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
KC

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  2. T9

    Abrams lined out to center.

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  6. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  7. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  8. T9

    Wood flied out to left.

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  12. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to James Wood

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  13. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  14. T9

    Hassell III grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

    +2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  16. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  17. T9

    Erceg relieved Clarke

    ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  18. T9

    Tolbert in left field.

    WSH 5·KC 8

  19. T9

    Loftin at second base.

    WSH 5·KC 8

  20. T9

    Rave in right field.

    WSH 5·KC 8

  21. T9

    Isbel in center field.

    WSH 5·KC 8

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·KC 8

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 5·KC 8

  24. B8

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  25. B8

    Tolbert flied out to left.

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

    −0.5pp

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·KC 8

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

8

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

14

0

HR

2

2

BB

6

4

K

6

11

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

KC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.4%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.6%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.