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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

48-72

8
7
KC

KC

60-61

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
13,669 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 8 · KC 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH5011000018
KC2103000107

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH48-72
8
7
KC60-61
WSH48-72·KC60-61
WSH

WSH

48-72

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-55110001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44111111
SPRINT28.483
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44210010
SPRINT26.735
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44100012
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33114120
SPRINT25.411
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-55221000
SPRINT29.395
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-22011010
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT2872
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-44010001
R. AdamsR. AdamsC
0-22000001
Team10-37378108266
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
4.0766431
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000120
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2000100
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.1100010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
0.2111000
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.1300000
Team9.01277661
KC

KC

60-61

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-11200020
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-33222000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-55124100
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010011
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-55000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-44021010
SPRINT26.225
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-55020001
SPRINT27.765
JJ. Rave★RF
1-22110001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-22010020
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-11000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
1-33010002
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11100000
Team12-36367127166
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
4.0676422
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0200000
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0000120
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
1.0000010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0211110
Team9.01087662

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    83 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      42%·92.4 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      29%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·88.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      1%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      59%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      27%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·80.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      53%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      24%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    92 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      29%·90.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      23%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      12%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      5%·75.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CS
      1%·70.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      1%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      24%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      61%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      39%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      17%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      11%·74.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Avila
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      40%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

12

8

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Aug 11WSHWSH4@KCKC7
Aug 12WSHWSH5@KCKC8
Aug 13WSHWSH8@KCKC7today

Season series

KC wins series 2-1

Aug 11WSHWSH4@KCKC7
Aug 12WSHWSH5@KCKC8
Aug 13WSHWSH8@KCKC7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 35pp · Top 9th Inning

WSHWSH
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

WSH beat KC 8-7. Lile's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+27pp→ 74% WP

Lowe · homered to right (403 feet), Wood scored, García Jr. scored and Bell scored.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 7-6
+29pp→ 48% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right (410 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Witt Jr. scored.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 8-7
+35pp→ 79% WP

Lile · singled to right, García Jr. scored, Lowe to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH5011000018
KC2103000107

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · KC won 3

5
2

Inn 1

Lowe 4

Pasquantino 1

0
1

Inn 2

Jr. 1

1
0

Inn 3

House 1

1
3

Inn 4

Abrams 1

Pasquantino 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

1
0

Inn 9

Lile 1

WSH
KC

Play-by-play · 669 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 8·KC 7

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  3. B9

    Tolbert grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grichuk out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  5. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Tyler Tolbert

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  6. B9

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  7. B9

    Grichuk reached on infield single to shortstop, India to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

    +9pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  12. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Randal Grichuk

    · ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  13. B9

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  14. B9

    India reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

    +4pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  21. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Jonathan India

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  22. B9

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  23. B9

    Frazier grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

    −8pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  26. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  27. B9

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  28. B9

    Perez grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

    −6pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 8·KC 7

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

KC

Home

8

Runs

7

10

Hits

12

0

Errors

1

18

TB

17

2

HR

1

6

BB

6

6

K

6

18

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    64.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.5%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    205
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    92
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 22, 25sim 93
    205
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 93
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 92
    204
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 90
    202
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs