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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

72-80

3
1
CHW

CHW

57-96

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,919 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 3 · CHW 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1002000003
CHW0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Dylan Beavers

Dylan Beavers

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Mike Tauchman

Mike Tauchman

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL72-80
3
1
CHW57-96
BAL72-80·CHW57-96
BAL

BAL

72-80

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-55000003
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-55000002
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-55120001
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-22000021
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.530
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT2872
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-33112110
SPRINT29.194
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-33000012
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT3099
Team7-34343731512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WellsT. Wells★RP
6.0411041
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.0000010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0100000
Team9.0511061
CHW

CHW

57-96

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-33111102
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-33020000
SPRINT24.12
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-33000001
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
0-33000001
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-22000000
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
0-33000000
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
SPRINT26.838
K. TeelK. TeelC
0-11000001
Team5-3131151106
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
3.2533221
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.1100140
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0000130
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.2000010
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0100110
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
0.1000010
Team9.07335121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Wells
    89 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.3 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.6 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      10%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.8 mph·20% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      53%·86.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      27%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.3 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Akin
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      38%·85.4 mph·67% whiff

CHW

  • M. Perez
    75 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      33%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      32%·86.0 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      27%·82.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      8%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    25 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      60%·82.6 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      32%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      14%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      10%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      50%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      20%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      53%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      47%·95.9 mph·17% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • ST
      100%·81.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 15BALBAL4@CHWCHW1
Sep 16BALBAL8@CHWCHW7
Sep 17BALBAL3@CHWCHW1today

Season series

BAL wins series 6-0

May 30CHWCHW1@BALBAL2
May 31CHWCHW2@BALBAL4
Jun 1CHWCHW2@BALBAL3
Sep 15BALBAL4@CHWCHW1
Sep 16BALBAL8@CHWCHW7
Sep 17BALBAL3@CHWCHW1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 4th Inning

BALBAL
D. Beavers

D. Beavers

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

T. Wells

T. Wells

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H

CHWCHW
M. Tauchman

M. Tauchman

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CHW 3-1. Beavers's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Sosa · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Quero out at second, Montgomery to third.

BALTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+20pp→ 79% WP

Beavers · homered to right (398 feet), Mayo scored.

CHWBottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 21% WP

Meidroth · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1002000003
CHW0001000001

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · CHW won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
1

Inn 4

Beavers 2

Tauchman 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
CHW

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  3. B9

    Montgomery flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  7. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  9. B9

    Vargas flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

    −8pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  17. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  18. B9

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  19. B9

    Mead lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

    −8pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  23. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Curtis Mead

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  24. B9

    Mead hit for Tauchman

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  25. B9

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  26. B9

    Meidroth singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

    +11pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  29. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

  30. B9

    Akin relieved Garcia

    ·

    BAL 3·CHW 1

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

1

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

11

TB

8

1

HR

1

5

BB

0

12

K

6

17

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    45.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.1%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 97
    253
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    72
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 95
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 94
    14
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 94
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs