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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1KC
TOR

TOR

89-66

1
2
KC

KC

78-77

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
25,774 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

TOR 1 · KC 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000001001
KC000200002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 19, 25sim 96
    102
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 94
    122
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 94
    160
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 94
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 94
    27
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 94
    107
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Toronto Blue Jays, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR89-66
1
2
KC78-77
TOR89-66·KC78-77
TOR

TOR

89-66

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000000
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.123
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33000010
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT24.74
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-33111111
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33000010
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-22000001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-22000001
A. BargerA. BargerRF
0-11000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000000
Team4-3030141145
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
6.1422142
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000100
Team8.0422252
KC

KC

78-77

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44000001
SPRINT27.457
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44121100
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-22111120
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010001
SPRINT241
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-22000000
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-22000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11000001
Team4-2929242225
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
6.2311251
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.1000100
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000100
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0100000
Team9.0411451

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • S. Bieber
    87 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.0 mph·6% whiff
    • KC
      21%·82.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.4 mph·20% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      68%·84.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      32%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      58%·87.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      26%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.7 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    98 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      31%·88.3 mph·16% whiff
    • CH
      24%·80.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      16%·80.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      38%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      54%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      40%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 19TORTOR1@KCKC20
Sep 20TORTOR1@KCKC2today
Sep 21TORTOR8@KCKC5

Season series

KC leads series 4-1

Aug 1KCKC9@TORTOR3
Aug 2KCKC2@TORTOR4
Aug 3KCKC7@TORTOR4
Sep 19TORTOR1@KCKC20
Sep 20TORTOR1@KCKC2today
Sep 21TORTOR8@KCKC5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat TOR 2-1.

Win probability

KC vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 63% WP

Witt Jr. · homered to center (422 feet).

TORTop 7th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 23% WP

Varsho · homered to center (437 feet).

KCTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 93% WP

Varsho · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000001001
KC00020000—2

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · KC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Varsho 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
KC

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  2. T9

    Clement lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  4. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Ernie Clement

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  5. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  6. T9

    Varsho flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

    +10pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  10. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Daulton Varsho

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  11. T9

    Loperfido ran for France

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  12. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  13. T9

    France singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

    −8pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  15. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Ty France

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  16. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  17. T9

    Kirk fouled out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

    +6pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  26. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  27. T9

    Estévez relieved Clarke

    ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·KC 2

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 1·KC 2

  30. B8

    · ·

    TOR 1·KC 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

KC

Home

1

Runs

2

4

Hits

4

2

Errors

0

8

TB

11

1

HR

2

4

BB

2

5

K

5

12

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

KC vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.5± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.4%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.