• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1CIN
CHC

CHC

88-65

0
1
CIN

CIN

77-76

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
18,532 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CHC 0 · CIN 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000000000
CIN000100001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 18, 25sim 95
    122
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    141
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 93
    142
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 92
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 92
    121
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 92
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Chicago Cubs, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Austin Hays

Austin Hays

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC88-65
0
1
CIN77-76
CHC88-65·CIN77-76
CHC

CHC

88-65

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.662
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-33000001
SPRINT24.53
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000000
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000002
Team1-2929010019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
7.04110110
M. SorokaM. SorokaSP
1.0000110
Team8.04111120
CIN

CIN

77-76

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.838
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-44010002
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.354
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33000003
SPRINT26.530
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT2872
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33000002
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33000001
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000001
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-22000011
Team4-28281410112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. GreeneH. Greene★SP
9.0100190
Team9.0100190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    93 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Soroka
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SV
      37%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • H. Greene
    109 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·100.0 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      30%·91.0 mph·37% whiff
    • FS
      15%·88.3 mph·14% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

4

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 5-2

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1today
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Season series

Series tied 5-5

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1today
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHCCHC
S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 4 H

CINCIN
A. Hays

A. Hays

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

H. Greene

H. Greene

SP

Starting pitcherGem

9.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat CHC 1-0.

Win probability

CIN vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 73% WP

Benson · doubled to center, Hays scored.

CINTop 9th Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 89% WP

Busch · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000000000
CIN00010000—1

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Benson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
CIN

Play-by-play · 433 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  2. T9

    Happ struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

    +5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  8. T9

    Hunter Greene pitches to Ian Happ

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  9. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  10. T9

    Hoerner struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

    +6pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  14. T9

    Hunter Greene pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  15. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  16. T9

    Busch flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

    +8pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  18. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  25. T9

    Hunter Greene pitches to Michael Busch

    ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  26. T9

    Hayes at third base.

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  29. B8

    · ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

  30. B8

    Lux grounded out to catcher.

    · ·

    CHC 0·CIN 1

    −2pp

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

0

Runs

1

1

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

2

TB

6

0

HR

0

1

BB

1

9

K

12

5

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.2± 2.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    45.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.5%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.