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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7BOS
BOS

BOS

80-65

7
0
ATH

ATH

66-79

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
10,079 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · ATH 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS1200200207
ATH0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 98
    24
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 97
    145
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 97
    102
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 97
    107
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 8·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Athletics and beat them, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS80-65
7
0
ATH66-79
BOS80-65·ATH66-79
BOS

BOS

80-65

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55121002
SPRINT29.294
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-55121000
SPRINT25.818
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44221100
SPRINT27.969
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-44000002
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44011000
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44121001
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33100011
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44011001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
2-44121101
SPRINT257
Team12-37377127218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
7.03000100
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0000000
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.0000000
Team9.03000100
ATH

ATH

66-79

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-44000001
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000001
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
0-33000002
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-33000003
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT27.969
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-33000001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
1-33010000
Team3-30300300010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
4.2755122
BB. BassoRP
2.1100040
S. McGoughS. McGoughRP
2.0422020
Team9.01277182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • C. Murphy
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      42%·78.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.4 mph·0% whiff

ATH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

3

7

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Sep 9BOSBOS7@ATHATH0today
Sep 10BOSBOS6@ATHATH0
Sep 10BOSBOS4@ATHATH5

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Sep 9BOSBOS7@ATHATH0today
Sep 10BOSBOS6@ATHATH0
Sep 10BOSBOS4@ATHATH5
Sep 16ATHATH2@BOSBOS1
Sep 17ATHATH4@BOSBOS5
Sep 18ATHATH5@BOSBOS3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 9pp · Top 1st Inning

BOSBOS
T. Story

T. Story

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H

ATHATH
J. Wilson

J. Wilson

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

L. Morales

L. Morales

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat ATH 7-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 75% WP

Story · homered to left (404 feet).

BOSTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+6pp→ 85% WP

Sogard · singled to center, Yoshida scored, Rafaela to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS1200200207
ATH0000000000

Period scoring

BOS won 4 · ATH won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Story 1

2
0

Inn 2

Sogard 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Narv 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Gonz 1

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
ATH

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  3. B9

    Kurtz grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  9. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Nick Kurtz

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  10. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  11. B9

    Rooker lined out to pitcher.

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  15. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Brent Rooker

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  16. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  17. B9

    Langeliers flied out to right.

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  20. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Shea Langeliers

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  21. B9

    Murphy relieved Kelly

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  24. T9

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  25. T9

    Bregman grounded out to third.

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  28. T9

    Scott McGough pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  29. T9

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

  30. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 7·ATH 0

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

7

Runs

0

12

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

20

TB

4

2

HR

0

1

BB

0

8

K

10

11

LOB

6

Player projections

ATH vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.6%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.4%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586