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FINAL+1MIA
PHI

PHI

83-60

4
5
MIA

MIA

66-77

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
30,223 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

PHI 4 · MIA 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0100020014
MIA400000105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    162
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    224
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    147
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    164
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    24
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 93
    142
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Philadelphia Phillies, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh

LF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI83-60
4
5
MIA66-77
PHI83-60·MIA66-77
PHI

PHI

83-60

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111010
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55010001
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
3-33131010
SPRINT28.175
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT27.148
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33100011
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-33000001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000010
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-11000000
Team7-3434474157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
6.0844211
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.2111011
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
0.1000000
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
0.2100210
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
0.1000010
Team8.01055442
MIA

MIA

66-77

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000011
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-55110002
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55110001
SPRINT27.354
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
3-44234200
SPRINT28.381
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-33000000
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT28.483
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-22020010
SPRINT26.326
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-44011000
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
0-22000010
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
1-11010000
Team10-34345105244
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. PhillipsT. Phillips★RP
2.2111130
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
2.1200010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0222101
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
0.2000110
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.1100020
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0111200
Team9.0744571

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • T. Walker
    87 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      32%·86.3 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      26%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·74.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      70%·92.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      65%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      30%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Trivino
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FC
      50%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      50%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      67%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.0 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • T. Phillips
    41 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      37%·95.7 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      24%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      2%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      21%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      33%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·78.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    27 pitches·15% CSW
    • ST
      33%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      26%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      26%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      29%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.5 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      24%·93.8 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      19%·86.4 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      94%·97.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 5-2

Jun 16PHIPHI5@MIAMIA2
Jun 17PHIPHI3@MIAMIA8
Jun 18PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Jun 19PHIPHI2@MIAMIA1
Sep 5PHIPHI9@MIAMIA3
Sep 6PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Sep 7PHIPHI4@MIAMIA5today

Season series

PHI leads series 7-3

Apr 18MIAMIA2@PHIPHI7
Apr 19MIAMIA10@PHIPHI11
Apr 20MIAMIA7@PHIPHI5
Jun 16PHIPHI5@MIAMIA2
Jun 17PHIPHI3@MIAMIA8
Jun 18PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Jun 19PHIPHI2@MIAMIA1
Sep 5PHIPHI9@MIAMIA3
Sep 6PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Sep 7PHIPHI4@MIAMIA5today
Sep 23MIAMIA6@PHIPHI5
Sep 24MIAMIA1@PHIPHI11
Sep 25MIAMIA0@PHIPHI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

PHIPHI
B. Marsh

B. Marsh

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

T. Phillips

T. Phillips

RP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat PHI 5-4. Lopez's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

MIA vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+20pp→ 82% WP

Lopez · homered to left (424 feet), Marsee scored and Ramírez scored.

MIABottom 7th Inning · 3-5
+12pp→ 87% WP

Lopez · homered to center (417 feet).

MIATop 9th Inning · 4-5
+17pp→ 100% WP

Harper · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0100020014
MIA40000010—5

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · MIA won 2

0
4

Inn 1

Lopez 3

1
0

Inn 2

Castellanos 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Turner 1

0
1

Inn 7

Lopez 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Schwarber 1

PHI
MIA

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  2. T9

    Harper grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

    +17pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  7. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Bryce Harper

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  8. T9

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  9. T9

    Schwarber singled to right, Kepler scored, Realmuto to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

    −9pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  16. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    PHI 4·MIA 5

  17. T9

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  18. T9

    Bader lined out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

    +9pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  24. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  25. T9

    Bader hit for Sosa

    ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  26. T9

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  27. T9

    Stott fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

    +9pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

  30. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIA 5

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

1

14

TB

16

1

HR

2

5

BB

4

7

K

4

17

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    41.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.8%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.0%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.