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FINAL+4CHC
CHC

CHC

88-64

8
4
PIT

PIT

65-88

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
13,488 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 8 · PIT 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC4000030108
PIT3100000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Justin Turner

Justin Turner

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Joey Bart

Joey Bart

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC88-64
8
4
PIT65-88
CHC88-64·PIT65-88
CHC

CHC

88-64

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-22101021
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44320010
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-44123110
SPRINT27.662
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-33111101
SPRINT24.53
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33000000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-55010001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44110012
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-55010000
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33100020
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
2-22022000
K. AlcantaraK. AlcantaraRF
0-11000001
Team10-36368107276
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
3.0744251
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
1.0100020
A. CivaleA. CivaleSP
3.0000030
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0100110
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
Team9.09443111
PIT

PIT

65-88

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-55020001
SPRINT28.483
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.586
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-44100010
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-44111012
SPRINT27.662
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-44113102
SPRINT26.428
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
1-33010001
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44010001
R. FloresR. Flores★C
1-33010011
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
1-22110001
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-22000000
J. SuwinskiJ. SuwinskiRF
0-22000002
Team9-37374941311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
5.0544332
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
0.2130100
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.1200000
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.1111310
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
0.2100010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000010
Team9.01085762

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    83 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      59%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      23%·79.0 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·73.4 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Civale
    55 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      49%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      29%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      71%·93.3 mph·36% whiff
    • KC
      29%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      42%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      64%·78.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      36%·92.1 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    99 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.0 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • D. Moreta
    32 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      63%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      58%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      45%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      27%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • CU
      33%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

8

Runs

4

1

Errors

3

Current series

CHC win series 5-1

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4today

Season series

CHC win series 10-3

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
J. Turner

J. Turner

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
J. Bart

J. Bart

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 8-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 4-3
+12pp→ 22% WP

Bart · homered to center (419 feet), Pham scored and McCutchen scored.

PITBottom 2nd Inning · 4-3
+10pp→ 46% WP

N. Gonzales · hit by pitch, Triolo to second, Devanney to third.

CHCTop 6th Inning · 4-4
+10pp→ 70% WP

Shaw · walked, Swanson to second, Swanson safe at third on throwing error by catcher Bart.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC4000030108
PIT3100000004

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · PIT won 1

4
3

Inn 1

Happ 3

Bart 3

0
1

Inn 2

McCutchen 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Busch 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 698 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  3. B9

    Cruz flied out to left.

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  11. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  12. B9

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  13. B9

    Bart lined out to center.

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  18. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Joey Bart

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  19. B9

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  20. B9

    McCutchen flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

    −1pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  24. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  25. B9

    Rogers relieved Pomeranz

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  28. T9

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  29. T9

    Shaw grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 8·PIT 4

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

8

Runs

4

10

Hits

9

1

Errors

3

17

TB

13

2

HR

1

7

BB

3

6

K

11

21

LOB

24

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    42.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.1%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    2511
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 95
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    147
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 93
    1612
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 93
    163
    26(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 92
    224
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278