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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10SD
SD

SD

69-52

11
1
SF

SF

59-62

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
35,080 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 11 · SF 1 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD07003010011
SF0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 11–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD69-52
11
1
SF59-62
SD69-52·SF59-62
SD

SD

69-52

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-33123020
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44011000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44110000
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-55010001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44210010
SPRINT27.148
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-55221000
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
3-44332111
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
2-33122020
SPRINT28.891
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-44110012
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
0-11000000
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias2B
0-11000000
Team14-383811149174
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
6.2411150
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.1100000
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
2.0000020
Team9.0511170
SF

SF

59-62

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-33010012
SPRINT2872
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
0-44000001
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000002
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT27.148
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-22001001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33010001
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-33000000
G. McCrayG. McCrayCF
0-11000000
Team5-3131151017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
1.2476400
C. KossC. Koss★2B
1.0200000
S. BivensS. BivensRP
2.1200120
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0333211
T. BeckT. BeckRP
2.0311010
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0000000
Team9.0141110741

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    101 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.6 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.8 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      1%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • W. Peralta
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      67%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • K. Teng
    53 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      30%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·83.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    38 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      34%·96.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      16%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    33 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      48%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Beck
    32 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      44%·83.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      19%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Koss
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • EP
      87%·49.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      13%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Walker
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

5

11

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 5-2

Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1today

Season series

SD leads series 7-2

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1today
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 2nd Inning

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

S. Bivens

S. Bivens

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat SF 11-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 39% WP

Arraez · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Tatis Jr. out at second.

SDTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 84% WP

Cronenworth · singled to center, Bogaerts scored and O'Hearn scored, Laureano to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD07003010011
SF0000001001

Period scoring

SD won 2 · SF won 0

0
0

Inn 1

7
0

Inn 2

Cronenworth 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Laureano 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Jr. 1

Koss 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
SF

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 11·SF 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  3. B9

    McCray grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  5. B9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Grant McCray

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  6. B9

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  7. B9

    Adames struck out looking.

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  14. B9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  15. B9

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  16. B9

    Smith flied out to center.

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  19. B9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Dominic Smith

    ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 11·SF 1

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 11·SF 1

  22. T9

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  23. T9

    Johnson lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  25. T9

    Christian Koss pitches to Bryce Johnson

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  27. T9

    Díaz singled to center, Cronenworth to second.

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 11·SF 1

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

SF

Home

11

Runs

1

14

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

20

TB

7

1

HR

0

7

BB

1

4

K

7

14

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    43.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.0%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    168
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    147
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    1612
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 93
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 93
    68
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs