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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9SF
CHC

CHC

76-57

3
12
SF

SF

65-68

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
30,457 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHC 3 · SF 12 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0300000003
SF1030331112

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    1612
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 93
    168
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 93
    147
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 93
    2511
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 92
    223
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesSF wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Chicago Cubs, 12–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

3.500OPS

4-4

AB-H

4

R

5

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC76-57
3
12
SF65-68
CHC76-57·SF65-68
CHC

CHC

76-57

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-33123100
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33010002
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-22000022
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
0-33000010
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33110001
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-44000001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000001
O. CaissieO. CaissieRF
0-11000001
SPRINT28.586
Team5-3030353148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
4.2876221
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.1233021
J. WicksJ. WicksRP
1.0111001
R. McGuireR. McGuireC
1.0211101
Team8.0131211344
SF

SF

65-68

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-44321101
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
4-44445210
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33001010
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44111001
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
3-44232100
SPRINT28.175
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44011001
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44010001
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
0-44000000
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
1-33210010
C. KossC. Koss2B
0-11000000
Team13-3535121311434
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. WhisenhuntC. Whisenhunt★SP
5.0533331
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
2.0000030
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.0000020
C. SeymourC. SeymourRP
1.0000100
Team9.0533481

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

13

3

Runs

12

1

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 3-0

Aug 27CHCCHC2@SFSF5
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF12today
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF4

Season series

SF leads series 4-1

May 5SFSF2@CHCCHC9
May 6SFSF14@CHCCHC5
May 7SFSF3@CHCCHC1
Aug 27CHCCHC2@SFSF5
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF12today
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 2nd Inning

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Whisenhunt

C. Whisenhunt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SF beat CHC 12-3. Hoerner's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

SF vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+26pp→ 76% WP

Hoerner · homered to left center (397 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Swanson scored.

SFBottom 3rd Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 55% WP

Devers · hit a ground rule double, Knizner scored, Ramos to third.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
+21pp→ 67% WP

Ramos · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0300000003
SF10303311—12

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · SF won 6

0
1

Inn 1

Devers 1

3
0

Inn 2

Hoerner 3

0
3

Inn 3

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Chapman 2

0
3

Inn 6

Devers 3

0
1

Inn 7

Chapman 1

0
1

Inn 8

Ramos 1

0

Inn 9

CHC
SF

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  2. T9

    Shaw grounded out to third.

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  7. T9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Matt Shaw

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  8. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  9. T9

    Busch walked.

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  16. T9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Michael Busch

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  17. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  18. T9

    Crow-Armstrong flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  21. T9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  22. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  23. T9

    Kelly fouled out to first.

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  28. T9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  29. T9

    Seymour relieved Beck

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 12

  30. T9

    Schmitt at third base.

    CHC 3·SF 12

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

SF

Home

3

Runs

12

5

Hits

13

1

Errors

1

8

TB

27

1

HR

4

4

BB

3

8

K

4

12

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    42.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.0%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.