HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4TOR
TOR

TOR

74-53

7
3
PIT

PIT

53-74

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
14,282 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

TOR

league avg

PIT

PIT

.702

OPS

.715

▶

.739

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.334

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.06

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 7 · PIT 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR3200002007
PIT0100001103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 56-31
61%Last 30 · 297-190
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. KellerPIT−34.6pp
  2. 2A. BargerTOR+19.1pp
  3. 3B. BichetteTOR+16.7pp

TOR · top performer

TOR
Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk

C

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerDH
.2924222101
A. BargerRF
.2603100011
B. Bichette3B
.2964210010
A. KirkC
.2965133102
N. LukesRF
.2545022002
T. France1B
.3264010000
E. Clement2B
.2794000002
A. GimenezSS
.2223000011
M. StrawRF
.2633110010
- D. SchneiderLF
.2521000000
- D. VarshoCF
.2350000000
Team367107249

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. ScherzerSP
6.041134104
L. VarlandRP
1.02110114
T. NanceRP
1.02100223
J. HoffmanRP
1.0000019
Team9.083238150

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Simon2B
.1764001001
S. Horwitz1B
.2564000000
B. ReynoldsLF
.2444020000
N. Gonzales3B
.2814120001
A. McCutchenDH
.2382100021
J. SuwinskiRF
.1373011011
J. BartC
.2484120001
J. TrioloSS
.1914010002
I. Kiner-Falefa2B
.2624001001
Team33383038

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. KellerSP
3.17553485
Y. RamirezRP
3.00000339
C. HoldermanRP
1.22221133
E. SiskRP
1.01000115
Team9.0107749172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    104 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.9 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.4 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      57%·89.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      22%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Varland
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • KC
      50%·88.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      43%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·90.0 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • M. Keller
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      24%·94.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.9 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    39 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.0 mph·31% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Holderman
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      45%·97.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      42%·91.4 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      40%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·75.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·78.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

7

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 18TORTOR2@PITPIT5
Aug 19TORTOR7@PITPIT3today
Aug 20TORTOR1@PITPIT2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 18TORTOR2@PITPIT5
Aug 19TORTOR7@PITPIT3today
Aug 20TORTOR1@PITPIT2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 9pp · Top 1st Inning

TORTOR
A. Kirk

A. Kirk

C

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TOR beat PIT 7-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+9pp→ 82% WP

Lukes · singled to center, Barger scored and Bichette scored.

TORTop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+7pp→ 92% WP

Springer · homered to center (423 feet), Straw scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR3200002007
PIT0100001103

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · PIT won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Lukes 2

2
1

Inn 2

Springer 2

Kiner-Falefa 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
1

Inn 7

Kirk 2

Simon 1

0
1

Inn 8

Suwinski 1

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
PIT

Play-by-play · 610 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  3. B9

    Simon flied out to center.

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  7. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Ronny Simon

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  8. B9

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  9. B9

    Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

    −0.5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  12. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  13. B9

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  14. B9

    Triolo struck out looking.

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

    −1pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  19. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Jared Triolo

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  20. B9

    Hoffman relieved Nance

    ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  21. B9

    Straw in left field.

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  22. B9

    Lukes in right field.

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  23. B9

    Varsho in center field.

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  27. T9

    Lukes struck out looking.

    · ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 7·PIT 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

7

Runs

3

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

17

TB

10

2

HR

0

4

BB

3

9

K

8

17

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.5± 2.9low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.8± 3.2low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.7low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Jake MangumPIT
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Nick GonzalesPIT
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.3high
  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Tyler CallihanPIT
    1.9± 3.7low

RBIs

  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
    0.8± 1.8low
  • Tyler CallihanPIT
    0.8± 1.9low

Earned runs

  • Max ScherzerTOR
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.5± 3.0low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
    3.2± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    41.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.1%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.8%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.