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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7ARI
PHI

PHI

92-64

2
9
ARI

ARI

79-77

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
37,105 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

PHI 2 · ARI 9 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000202
ARI150001119

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 99
    228
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    84
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 93
    223
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 93
    127
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 93
    146
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 93
    226
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Philadelphia Phillies, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Jorge Barrosa

Jorge Barrosa

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI92-64
2
9
ARI79-77
PHI92-64·ARI79-77
PHI

PHI

92-64

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010010
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-55000001
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55010000
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-55110002
SPRINT28.381
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
4-44140010
SPRINT26.632
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-55011002
SPRINT27.148
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-44010001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010011
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-22011021
Team11-37372112058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
4.0866121
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0100000
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0211011
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0311001
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0111020
Team8.01599153
ARI

ARI

79-77

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-44222000
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-55020001
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-55224100
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
3-55031000
SPRINT26.428
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-55000002
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-44000000
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
2-44221101
SPRINT27.662
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
1-33110011
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
3-44231100
SPRINT28.688
Team15-39399159315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.0600350
P. AbnerP. AbnerRP
1.0000000
T. RashiT. RashiRP
1.0322210
N. CrismattN. CrismattSP
1.0200020
Team9.01122580

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    79 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      35%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·75.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      16%·79.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      38%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·88.2 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      29%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      47%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.1 mph·100% whiff

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    95 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.1 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      28%·85.0 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rashi
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      62%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Crismatt
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      65%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      29%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Abner
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·80.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

15

2

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 20PHIPHI8@ARIARI2
Sep 21PHIPHI3@ARIARI4
Sep 21PHIPHI2@ARIARI9today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

May 2ARIARI2@PHIPHI3
May 3ARIARI2@PHIPHI7
May 4ARIARI11@PHIPHI9
Sep 20PHIPHI8@ARIARI2
Sep 21PHIPHI3@ARIARI4
Sep 21PHIPHI2@ARIARI9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
J. Barrosa

J. Barrosa

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat PHI 9-2.

Win probability

ARI vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 53% WP

Marte · doubled to right.

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 75% WP

Barrosa · reached on bunt single to third, Lawlar to second, Tawa to third.

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-6
+11pp→ 94% WP

Carroll · homered to right center (428 feet), Barrosa scored and Marte scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000202
ARI15000111—9

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · ARI won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Carroll 1

0
5

Inn 2

Carroll 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Barrosa 1

0
1

Inn 7

Tawa 1

2
1

Inn 8

Castellanos 1

Moreno 1

0

Inn 9

PHI
ARI

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  2. T9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  11. T9

    Nabil Crismatt pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  12. T9

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  13. T9

    Bohm singled to left, Harper to second.

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  17. T9

    Nabil Crismatt pitches to Alec Bohm

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  18. T9

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  19. T9

    Realmuto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  24. T9

    Nabil Crismatt pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  25. T9

    ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  26. T9

    Harper singled to left.

    ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  28. T9

    Nabil Crismatt pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  29. T9

    ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

  30. T9

    Schwarber popped out to third.

    ·

    PHI 2·ARI 9

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

2

Runs

9

11

Hits

15

1

Errors

0

14

TB

26

0

HR

3

5

BB

1

8

K

5

28

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    44.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.6%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.4%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.