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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
MIL

MIL

58-40

8
7
LAD

LAD

58-41

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,540 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 8 · LAD 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0041011108
LAD0040010207

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 19·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Isaac Collins

Isaac Collins

LF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Miguel Rojas

Miguel Rojas

SS

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL58-40
8
7
LAD58-41
MIL58-40·LAD58-41
MIL

MIL

58-40

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-44220011
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-55112002
SPRINT24.96
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-55020001
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-55010002
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33012010
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-44221111
SPRINT27.867
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44011001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-33110010
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44222100
SPRINT28.790
Team13-37378138248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.0544341
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.1311020
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.2000020
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0222012
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000000
Team9.01077393
LAD

LAD

58-41

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55123101
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-55120000
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44100011
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44011011
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000002
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-33010001
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
2-44221101
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000002
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
2-33221110
SPRINT26.123
E. RuizE. RuizRF
0-11000000
Team10-37377106339
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
3.0755131
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
2.0000110
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.1322110
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2100020
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.0211001
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000110
Team9.01388482

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • N. Mears
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.9 mph·50% whiff

LAD

  • L. Trivino
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      37%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      32%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      32%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      56%·86.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      28%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

10

8

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Jul 19MILMIL2@LADLAD0
Jul 20MILMIL8@LADLAD7today
Jul 20MILMIL6@LADLAD5

Season series

MIL leads series 5-0

Jul 7LADLAD1@MILMIL9
Jul 8LADLAD1@MILMIL3
Jul 9LADLAD2@MILMIL3
Jul 19MILMIL2@LADLAD0
Jul 20MILMIL8@LADLAD7today
Jul 20MILMIL6@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MILMIL
I. Collins

I. Collins

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
M. Rojas

M. Rojas

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat LAD 8-7.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 3rd Inning · 4-3
+16pp→ 59% WP

T. Hern · ández doubled to center, Smith scored, Freeman to third.

MILTop 6th Inning · 6-4
+14pp→ 78% WP

Durbin · doubled to left, Collins scored.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 6-5
+15pp→ 43% WP

Ohtani · singled to left, Edman scored, Rojas to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0041011108
LAD0040010207

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
4

Inn 3

Contreras 2

Ohtani 2

1
0

Inn 4

Collins 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Durbin 1

Ohtani 1

1
0

Inn 7

Vaughn 1

1
2

Inn 8

Ortiz 1

Edman 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
LAD

Play-by-play · 619 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  3. B9

    T. Hernández grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  6. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  7. B9

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  8. B9

    Freeman grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

    −9pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  11. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  12. B9

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  13. B9

    Smith flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

    −7pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  21. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Will Smith

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  22. B9

    Megill relieved Koenig

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  25. T9

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  26. T9

    Collins grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Vaughn out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  28. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Isaac Collins

    · ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  29. T9

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

  30. T9

    Vaughn walked.

    ·

    MIL 8·LAD 7

    −1pp

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

8

Runs

7

13

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

23

TB

20

2

HR

3

4

BB

3

8

K

9

15

LOB

11

Player projections

LAD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.1%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 93
    214
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 93
    1411
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 91
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 91
    26
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 91
    810
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 90
    229
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175