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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1HOU
TEX

TEX

79-73

5
6
HOU

HOU

83-69

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
35,026 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

TEX 5 · HOU 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000100405
HOU101400006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Texas Rangers, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Jonah Heim

Jonah Heim

C

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena

SS

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX79-73
5
6
HOU83-69
TEX79-73·HOU83-69
TEX

TEX

79-73

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-55010002
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000012
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-33000002
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-22010001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
2-55120001
SPRINT23.91
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44111001
SPRINT25.920
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-33010010
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-33000002
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-33111110
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11100010
J. HeimJ. HeimC
2-22122100
SPRINT25.18
A. GarciaA. GarciaRF
1-11011000
SPRINT26.735
Team10-363651052511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
3.0966110
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.1100110
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.2000110
C. Edwards Jr.C. Edwards Jr.RP
2.0000230
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0000000
Team8.01066560
HOU

HOU

83-69

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
3-33230010
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-55020001
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-22012001
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44001002
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-33000011
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-44110000
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-22110020
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44111001
SPRINT25.513
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-22112000
SPRINT25.818
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-11000010
Team10-30306106056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. BlubaughA. Blubaugh★RP
3.0200170
CC. GordonSP
3.0211211
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.0000010
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.2344101
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.1300120
Team9.010555112

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 4-2

Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6today
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5

Season series

Series tied 6-6

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6today
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 9th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Heim

J. Heim

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Edwards Jr.

C. Edwards Jr.

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

HOUHOU
J. Pena

J. Pena

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

A. Blubaugh

A. Blubaugh

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 6-5.

Win probability

HOU vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 65% WP

Correa · doubled to left, Peña to third.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 5-6
+14pp→ 28% WP

Smith · reached on infield single to shortstop.

HOUTop 9th Inning · 5-6
+13pp→ 100% WP

Higashioka · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000100405
HOU10140000—6

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · HOU won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Walker 1

0
4

Inn 4

Diaz 1

1
0

Inn 5

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Heim 2

0

Inn 9

TEX
HOU

Play-by-play · 610 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  2. T9

    Higashioka struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  8. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  9. T9

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  10. T9

    Heim singled to right, Smith to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

    −5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  14. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Jonah Heim

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  15. T9

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  16. T9

    Tellez flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

    +10pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  20. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Rowdy Tellez

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  21. T9

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  22. T9

    Langford struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

    +10pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  28. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Wyatt Langford

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  29. T9

    ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

  30. T9

    Smith reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·HOU 6

    −14pp

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

5

Runs

6

10

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

18

TB

12

2

HR

0

5

BB

5

11

K

6

18

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 4, 25sim 97
    108
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    27
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    194
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    126
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

HOU vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    49.9%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.