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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4NYY
NYY

NYY

78-62

8
4
HOU

HOU

77-64

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
35,018 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 8 · HOU 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0100300408
HOU0010011014

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Thu, Sep 4·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Houston Astros and beat them, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

3B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY78-62
8
4
HOU77-64
NYY78-62·HOU77-64
NYY

NYY

78-62

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
2-55223101
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-22000030
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-55011001
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-33000011
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-22000001
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22200021
SPRINT25.18
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
3-44233100
SPRINT2622
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
1-11010000
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
0-11100000
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
0-22001011
Team9-3535898278
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
6.0321231
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.2311021
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.1100030
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0311120
Team9.010433102
HOU

HOU

77-64

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55010001
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
4-55242100
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-33000022
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-55020001
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-55000003
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000011
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22000000
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-33000001
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-22000000
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
1-22111100
SPRINT25.818
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
1-11110000
SPRINT24.22
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
1-22010001
Team10-383841032310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
4.1644341
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.2000110
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0000110
K. OrtK. OrtRP
0.2344211
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.1000010
Team9.0988782

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    109 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      49%·94.6 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      28%·86.1 mph·28% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • D. Bednar
    33 pitches·42% CSW
    • CU
      52%·77.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      42%·96.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      6%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      28%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FS
      72%·80.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.7 mph·— whiff

HOU

  • C. Javier
    78 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      32%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      6%·75.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • K. Ort
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.2 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      63%·97.0 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Murray
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      79%·96.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      7%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      69%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      15%·83.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

8

Runs

4

3

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Sep 3NYYNYY7@HOUHOU1
Sep 4NYYNYY7@HOUHOU8
Sep 4NYYNYY8@HOUHOU4today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Aug 8HOUHOU5@NYYNYY3
Aug 9HOUHOU4@NYYNYY5
Aug 10HOUHOU7@NYYNYY1
Sep 3NYYNYY7@HOUHOU1
Sep 4NYYNYY7@HOUHOU8
Sep 4NYYNYY8@HOUHOU4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 7th Inning

NYYNYY
R. McMahon

R. McMahon

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

HOUHOU
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYY beat HOU 8-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 67% WP

McMahon · homered to center (410 feet).

HOUBottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+16pp→ 36% WP

Sánchez homered to left (357 feet).

NYYTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+14pp→ 77% WP

Stanton · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0100300408
HOU0010011014

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

8

Runs

4

9

Hits

10

3

Errors

0

15

TB

19

2

HR

2

7

BB

3

8

K

10

13

LOB

24

Win probability

HOU vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · HOU won 4

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

McMahon 1

0
1

Inn 3

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

McMahon 1

0
1

Inn 6

Correa 1

0
1

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Grisham 3

0
1

Inn 9

Alvarez 1

NYY
HOU

Play-by-play · 646 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  3. B9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  9. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Christian Walker

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  10. B9

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  11. B9

    Correa struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

    −7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  18. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  19. B9

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  20. B9

    Altuve walked, Alvarez to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

    +6pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  27. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Jose Altuve

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  28. B9

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

  29. B9

    Alvarez singled to left, Caratini scored, Trammell to third.

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

    +3pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 8·HOU 4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

HOU vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    27
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    135
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    216
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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