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FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

61-63

2
1
SF

SF

59-64

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
35,070 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 2 · SF 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000202
SF0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB61-63
2
1
SF59-64
TB61-63·SF59-64
TB

TB

61-63

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44021000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44021002
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33000010
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-44000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44010001
BB. Seymour★1B
0-33000002
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-33000011
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-22000000
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
0-11000000
T. GrayT. Gray3B
0-11100000
SPRINT26.428
Team6-3333262029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
5.0400060
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2111110
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.1100020
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0100030
Team9.07111140
SF

SF

59-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000002
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT27.457
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT25.716
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
C. KossC. Koss★2B
2-44021001
T. FitzgeraldT. Fitzgerald★2B
0-44000003
G. McCrayG. McCray★CF
0-33000002
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
0-33000000
W. FloresW. Flores1B
0-11000001
Team7-34341710114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. VerlanderJ. Verlander★SP
7.0200080
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
0.2222000
M. GageM. GageRP
0.1100110
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0100100
Team9.0622290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • M. Montgomery
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      75%·97.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·91.2 mph·100% whiff

SF

  • K. Winn
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      38%·90.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      38%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.0 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 16TBTB7@SFSF6
Aug 17TBTB2@SFSF1today
Aug 17TBTB1@SFSF7

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

Aug 16TBTB7@SFSF6
Aug 17TBTB2@SFSF1today
Aug 17TBTB1@SFSF7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 8th Inning

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

TB beat SF 2-1. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 8th inning (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 6th Inning · 0-1
+18pp→ 75% WP

Koss · singled to left, Adames scored, Smith to second.

TBTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+27pp→ 49% WP

Díaz singled to center, Gray scored, Simpson to third.

TBBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 100% WP

Fitzgerald · struck out swinging, Lee stole second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000202
SF0000010001

Period scoring

TB won 1 · SF won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Koss 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 9

TB
SF

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 2·SF 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  3. B9

    Flores struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  8. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Wilmer Flores

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  9. B9

    Flores hit for McCray

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  11. B9

    Fitzgerald struck out swinging, Lee stole second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

    −18pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  15. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Tyler Fitzgerald

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  16. B9

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  17. B9

    Koss struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

    −11pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  21. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Christian Koss

    · ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  22. B9

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  23. B9

    Lee singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

    +12pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 2·SF 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

SF

Home

2

Runs

1

6

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

6

TB

8

0

HR

0

2

BB

1

9

K

14

12

LOB

12

Player projections

SF vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.2± 1.6low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.4%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 11 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    290
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    170
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    300
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    114
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    111
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    53
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs