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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
BAL

BAL

71-80

8
7
CHW

CHW

57-95

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
12,428 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 8 · CHW 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0022202008
CHW2000000507

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Dylan Beavers

Dylan Beavers

RF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Andrew Benintendi

Andrew Benintendi

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL71-80
8
7
CHW57-95
BAL71-80·CHW57-95
BAL

BAL

71-80

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44000013
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44221012
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
3-55132000
SPRINT28.175
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-33100021
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
2-55123101
SPRINT29.194
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-55000003
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
3-55130000
SPRINT2872
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44112100
SPRINT25.310
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
2-44120001
Team13-393981382411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. KremerD. Kremer★SP
5.2422341
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.1000120
C. McDermottC. McDermottSP
0.2244120
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1111001
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0100020
Team9.08775102
CHW

CHW

57-95

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-44220010
SPRINT2744
K. TeelK. Teel★C
2-55122102
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000013
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44100002
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-33110010
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-44122001
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33112111
SPRINT26.632
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000011
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-33000000
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
Team8-34347862510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
4.1966171
F. EllardF. EllardRP
1.2100200
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
1.0222121
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0100010
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0000010
Team9.013884112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    97 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      26%·81.6 mph·53% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. McDermott
    31 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·88.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      6%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      70%·94.3 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      47%·85.7 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      5%·88.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.4 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • S. Smith
    88 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      15%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      2%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • F. Ellard
    35 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      26%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • W. González
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      59%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      19%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      50%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      43%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·89.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

8

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 15BALBAL4@CHWCHW1
Sep 16BALBAL8@CHWCHW7today
Sep 17BALBAL3@CHWCHW1

Season series

BAL leads series 5-0

May 30CHWCHW1@BALBAL2
May 31CHWCHW2@BALBAL4
Jun 1CHWCHW2@BALBAL3
Sep 15BALBAL4@CHWCHW1
Sep 16BALBAL8@CHWCHW7today
Sep 17BALBAL3@CHWCHW1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 4th Inning

BALBAL
D. Beavers

D. Beavers

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
A. Benintendi

A. Benintendi

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CHW 8-7. Basallo's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 76% WP

Teel · homered to center (406 feet), Meidroth scored.

BALTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+23pp→ 71% WP

Basallo · homered to right (420 feet), Mayo scored.

CHWBottom 8th Inning · 8-7
+15pp→ 20% WP

Benintendi · homered to center (404 feet), Sosa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0022202008
CHW2000000507

Period scoring

BAL won 4 · CHW won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Teel 2

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Jackson 1

2
0

Inn 4

Basallo 2

2
0

Inn 5

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Beavers 2

0
5

Inn 8

Sosa 2

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
CHW

Play-by-play · 653 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  3. B9

    Montgomery struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  10. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  11. B9

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  12. B9

    Teel struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

    −14pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  19. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Kyle Teel

    · ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  20. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  21. B9

    Meidroth reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

    +14pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  27. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  28. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

  29. B9

    Mead flied out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

    −8pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·CHW 7

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

8

Runs

7

13

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

25

TB

14

2

HR

2

4

BB

5

11

K

10

16

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 10 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.2%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 26, 25sim 95
    79
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    78
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    305
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 93
    257
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 93
    59
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 93
    298
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs