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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIN
ARI

ARI

73-75

8
9
MIN

MIN

65-82

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
18,177 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

ARI

league avg

MIN

MIN

.690

OPS

.715

▶

.712

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

4.23

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.81

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

ARI 8 · MIN 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1000102048
MIN0013110039

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 70-36
61%Last 30 · 308-194
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 9–8. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. SandsMIN−84.5pp
  2. 2C. CarrollARI+76.3pp
  3. 3C. KaiserARI+71.4pp

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Kody Clemens

Kody Clemens

1B

4.250OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

5

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoSS
.2852212110
I. Vargas1B
.2565110000
C. CarrollRF
.2564122011
G. MorenoC
.2904123111
B. Alexander3B
.2345000001
J. McCarthyCF
.2115020000
J. LawlarLF
.1255010000
A. ThomasCF
.2464000002
T. TawaLF
.2183210011
- C. KaiserSS
.1330100000
- J. BarrosaCF
.1250000000
Team378107246

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. PfaadtRP
4.29551278
K. BackhusRP
0.21111012
R. ThompsonRP
0.2000016
B. GarciaRP
1.00000218
J. BeeksRP
1.00000011
J. WoodfordRP
0.02331018
A. SaalfrankRP
0.1000109
Team8.1129945152

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonCF
.2744110000
A. MartinRF
.2913110021
T. LarnachLF
.2544001011
L. Keaschall2B
.3164112001
M. WallnerRF
.2054010000
R. Lewis3B
.2344110001
B. LeeSS
.2372101010
K. Clemens1B
.2174345300
J. PeredaC
.4173020001
- J. OutmanCF
.1900000000
- E. Julien2B
.1941010000
- R. Fitzgerald3B
.2220100000
Team339129345

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
P. LopezSP
5.04203699
K. FunderburkRP
1.0000007
M. TonkinRP
1.01221020
T. AdamsRP
1.01000017
C. SandsRP
1.04440021
Team9.0108646164

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • B. Garcia
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      38%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • C. Sands
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      42%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      47%·80.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·93.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

12

8

Runs

9

0

Errors

2

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 13ARIARI8@MINMIN9today
Sep 13ARIARI5@MINMIN2
Sep 14ARIARI6@MINMIN4

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Sep 13ARIARI8@MINMIN9today
Sep 13ARIARI5@MINMIN2
Sep 14ARIARI6@MINMIN4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 62pp · Top 9th Inning

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
K. Clemens

K. Clemens

1B

Batter of the game3-HR game

4-for-4 · 3 HR · 4.250 OPS

P. Lopez

P. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIN beat ARI 9-8. Moreno's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (62pp).

Win probability

MIN vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 4th Inning · 1-4
+17pp→ 87% WP

Clemens · homered to right (374 feet), Lewis scored.

ARITop 9th Inning · 8-6
+62pp→ 92% WP

Moreno · homered to left center (386 feet), Kaiser scored and Carroll scored.

MINBottom 9th Inning · 8-8
+39pp→ 94% WP

Larnach · walked, Fitzgerald scored, Martin to second, Buxton to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1000102048
MIN0013110039

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · MIN won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Clemens 1

0
3

Inn 4

Clemens 2

1
1

Inn 5

Moreno 1

Keaschall 1

0
1

Inn 6

Clemens 1

2
0

Inn 7

Perdomo 2

0
0

Inn 8

4
3

Inn 9

Moreno 3

Clemens 1

ARI
MIN

Play-by-play · 622 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 9

  2. B9

    Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 9

    +6pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 9

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 8

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 8

  6. B9

    Andrew Saalfrank pitches to Luke Keaschall

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 9

  7. B9

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 8

  8. B9

    Larnach walked, Fitzgerald scored, Martin to second, Buxton to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 8

    +39pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 8

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  15. B9

    Andrew Saalfrank pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 8

  16. B9

    Saalfrank relieved Woodford

    ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  17. B9

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  18. B9

    Martin walked, Buxton to second, Fitzgerald to third.

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  24. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Austin Martin

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  25. B9

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  26. B9

    Buxton hit by pitch, Fitzgerald to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

    +16pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  28. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Byron Buxton

    · ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  29. B9

    Fitzgerald ran for Julien

    ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

  30. B9

    ·

    ARI 8·MIN 7

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

8

Runs

9

10

Hits

12

0

Errors

2

18

TB

24

2

HR

3

4

BB

4

6

K

5

16

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

MIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Joe RyanMIN
    6.1± 3.4low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.1± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    5.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    1.0± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Tristan GrayMIN
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Josh BellMIN
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    3.5± 3.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    43.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.2%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.