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FINAL+4CHC
CHC

CHC

86-64

4
0
PIT

PIT

65-86

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
15,706 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 4 · PIT 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0021010004
PIT0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 15·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC86-64
4
0
PIT65-86
CHC86-64·PIT65-86
CHC

CHC

86-64

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44110010
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-44000002
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-44221101
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-44021000
SPRINT27.867
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000011
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33010010
Team9-3535493236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
6.0200230
M. SorokaM. SorokaSP
2.0000220
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
0.2100200
B. KellerB. KellerRP
0.1000010
Team9.0300660
PIT

PIT

65-86

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000011
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-22010010
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-44000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000010
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
0-33000012
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-22000010
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-33000011
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-11000000
Team3-3030030066
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
4.0633241
C. SandersC. SandersRP
1.2211101
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
2.0100020
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.1000000
Team9.0944362

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    88 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.1 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.7 mph·20% whiff
  • M. Soroka
    39 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      38%·82.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      71%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      50%·97.7 mph·100% whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    70 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      31%·97.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      27%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.3 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      17%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sanders
    39 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      57%·98.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      30%·85.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      14%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      71%·83.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

4

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 5-1

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0today
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4

Season series

CHC lead series 8-3

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0today
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 6pp · Top 4th Inning

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+6pp→ 83% WP

Crow-Armstrong · doubled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0021010004
PIT0000000000

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Busch 1

1
0

Inn 4

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  3. B9

    Triolo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  8. B9

    Brad Keller pitches to Jared Triolo

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  9. B9

    Keller relieved Hodge

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  10. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  11. B9

    Yorke walked.

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

    +3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  18. B9

    Porter Hodge pitches to Nick Yorke

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  19. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  20. B9

    Cruz grounded out to third, Suwinski to second, N. Gonzales to third.

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

    −2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  27. B9

    Porter Hodge pitches to Oneil Cruz

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  28. B9

    Cruz hit for Bart

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  29. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

  30. B9

    Suwinski walked, N. Gonzales to second.

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 0

    +2pp

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

4

Runs

0

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

17

TB

4

2

HR

0

3

BB

6

6

K

6

16

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    44.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.3%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 16, 25sim 97
    164
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    163
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 96
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    254
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs