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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

66-69

4
1
WSH

WSH

53-82

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
26,148 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · WSH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB3001000004
WSH0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 29, 25sim 98
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    282
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    155
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    111
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 93
    116
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 92
    280
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

LF

3.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB66-69
4
1
WSH53-82
TB66-69·WSH53-82
TB

TB

66-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-44000000
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33100011
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-33224200
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT2993
BB. Seymour★1B
0-33000001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-33000001
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-33000000
Team5-3030454215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
5.0100360
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
2.0311130
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000120
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
Team9.04115120
WSH

WSH

53-82

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33011010
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-22000021
SPRINT28.483
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-44000004
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT25.18
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-44000002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44000000
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-33000012
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33010002
Team4-30301410512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
6.0544132
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000000
M. ThompsonM. ThompsonRP
1.0000010
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0000010
Team9.0544152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.8 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      34%·88.4 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      1%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • M. Englert
    41 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      37%·87.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.1 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      20%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      50%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      27%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.6 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      35%·78.8 mph·24% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.2 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Thompson
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      47%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Aug 29TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 30TBTB4@WSHWSH1today
Aug 31TBTB7@WSHWSH4

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

Aug 29TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 30TBTB4@WSHWSH1today
Aug 31TBTB7@WSHWSH4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 1st Inning

TBTB
J. Lowe

J. Lowe

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat WSH 4-1. J. Lowe's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+22pp→ 82% WP

J. Lowe · homered to center (409 feet), B. Lowe scored and Caminero scored.

WSHBottom 8th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 22% WP

Wood · singled to center, García Jr. scored, Hassell III to third.

TBTop 9th Inning · 4-1
+8pp→ 97% WP

Díaz grounded out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB3001000004
WSH0000000101

Period scoring

TB won 2 · WSH won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Lowe 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Wood 1

0
0

Inn 9

TB
WSH

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 4·WSH 1

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  3. B9

    García Jr. grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  7. B9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  8. B9

    Crews struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

    −1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  12. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Dylan Crews

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  13. B9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  14. B9

    Lile grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  22. B9

    Baker relieved Jax

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 4·WSH 1

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 4·WSH 1

  25. T9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  26. T9

    Caminero fouled out to first.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  29. T9

    Jackson Rutledge pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  30. T9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

4

Runs

1

5

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

11

TB

5

2

HR

0

1

BB

5

5

K

12

1

LOB

16

Player projections

WSH vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.2± 2.5low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.9± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.5%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483