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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATH
ATH

ATH

51-66

6
0
WSH

WSH

45-69

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
14,519 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 6 · WSH 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0301000116
WSH0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Thu, Aug 7·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Colby Thomas

Colby Thomas

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Riley Adams

Riley Adams

C

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH51-66
6
0
WSH45-69
ATH51-66·WSH45-69
ATH

ATH

51-66

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44011001
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-33001022
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-55020002
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
0-55000001
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.735
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-33220010
SPRINT27.969
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
1-11113100
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
2-44120001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
3-44130000
J. BledayJ. BledayLF
0-22000001
Team12-35356126239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
7.23000100
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.1000020
Team9.03000120
WSH

WSH

45-69

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-33000001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000001
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-33010002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000003
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33010000
Team3-29290300012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ParkerM. Parker★RP
5.0644341
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.1100020
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2211011
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0100000
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0211020
Team9.01266392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    114 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      35%·90.8 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      33%·76.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·90.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·87.1 mph·40% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·92.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.5 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • M. Parker
    85 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.2 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.7 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      10%·85.3 mph·100% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      37%·86.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·80.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·77.1 mph·40% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      45%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

3

6

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Aug 5ATHATH16@WSHWSH7
Aug 6ATHATH1@WSHWSH2
Aug 7ATHATH6@WSHWSH0today

Season series

ATH wins series 2-1

Aug 5ATHATH16@WSHWSH7
Aug 6ATHATH1@WSHWSH2
Aug 7ATHATH6@WSHWSH0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATHATH
C. Thomas

C. Thomas

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.2 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H

WSHWSH
R. Adams

R. Adams

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat WSH 6-0. Thomas's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 67% WP

Thomas · homered to center (406 feet), Hernaiz scored.

ATHBottom 3rd Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 80% WP

Young · struck out swinging, Lile out at first.

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 15% WP

Adams · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0301000116
WSH0000000000

Period scoring

ATH won 4 · WSH won 0

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Thomas 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Soderstrom 1

1
0

Inn 9

Kurtz 1

ATH
WSH

Play-by-play · 531 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  3. B9

    Wood struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  9. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to James Wood

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  10. B9

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  11. B9

    Abrams flied out to left.

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  13. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  14. B9

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  15. B9

    Hassell III flied out to center.

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  17. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  18. B9

    Cortes in right field.

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  21. T9

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  22. T9

    MacIver struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  29. T9

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Willie MacIver

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

  30. T9

    · ·

    ATH 6·WSH 0

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

6

Runs

0

12

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

23

TB

4

2

HR

0

3

BB

0

9

K

12

13

LOB

5

Player projections

WSH vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.1± 2.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.6%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 29, 25sim 95
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    111
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 93
    155
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 93
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 92
    235
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 92
    90
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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