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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
SD

SD

67-52

4
1
SF

SF

59-60

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
31,018 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 4 · SF 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000013004
SF0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 7, 25sim 97
    253
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 97
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 97
    255
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 97
    163
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    195
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 11·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD67-52
4
1
SF59-60
SD67-52·SF59-60
SD

SD

67-52

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-55120000
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-55000000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-33010011
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-33000002
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
3-44031001
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-33020000
SPRINT26.735
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44111001
SPRINT28.891
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-44112100
SPRINT26.838
R. LaureanoR. LaureanoLF
0-11000000
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
0-11100000
Team11-37374114115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
6.0411061
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100010
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000000
Team9.05110101
SF

SF

59-60

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000002
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000003
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-33000002
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.428
Team5-31311511010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
6.1844131
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0100010
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.2100000
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.0100010
Team9.01144151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • R. Suarez
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      68%·99.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      21%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·99.7 mph·0% whiff

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 5-2

Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1today
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1

Season series

SD leads series 5-2

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1today
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 6th Inning

SDSD
J. Merrill

J. Merrill

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat SF 4-1. Devers's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+21pp→ 67% WP

Merrill · doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to third.

SFBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+23pp→ 55% WP

Devers · homered to left center (405 feet).

SDTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 75% WP

Cronenworth · singled to right, Johnson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000013004
SF0000010001

Period scoring

SD won 1 · SF won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Merrill 1

Devers 1

3
0

Inn 7

Fermin 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
SF

Play-by-play · 532 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 4·SF 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  3. B9

    Smith flied out to left.

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

    −0.6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  14. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Dominic Smith

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  15. B9

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  16. B9

    Adames lined out to center.

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

    −1pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  19. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  20. B9

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  21. B9

    Devers grounded out to second.

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  29. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Rafael Devers

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

  30. B9

    Suarez relieved Miller

    ·

    SD 4·SF 1

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

SF

Home

4

Runs

1

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

18

TB

8

1

HR

1

1

BB

0

5

K

10

15

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    45.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.4%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.