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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7KC
KC

KC

75-75

10
3
PHI

PHI

89-61

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
42,513 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 10 · PHI 3 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC00002420210
PHI2000000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    76
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    213
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 93
    2310
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 93
    214
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 93
    72
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC75-75
10
3
PHI89-61
KC75-75·PHI89-61
KC

KC

75-75

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33010000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55221103
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
3-55331000
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44120010
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-55125101
SPRINT241
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-33100010
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-44000010
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44112111
SPRINT27.148
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-44110001
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-22000001
Team12-3939101210347
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
7.0422172
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0111001
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
0.2000100
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
0.1000000
Team9.0533273
PHI

PHI

89-61

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44121100
SPRINT28.381
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000003
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000001
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-33000001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-22111110
SPRINT28.688
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-33000000
Team5-3030353327
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
6.0666152
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
0.2322120
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.1000100
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0322101
Team9.0121010473

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • N. Cameron
    97 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      31%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      22%·88.6 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      15%·80.6 mph·83% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Estevez
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      50%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Avila
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      38%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • A. Nola
    97 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·91.7 mph·9% whiff
    • KC
      28%·78.2 mph·54% whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      13%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      37%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      21%·81.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      4%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Trivino
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      14%·81.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

5

10

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 12KCKC2@PHIPHI8
Sep 13KCKC6@PHIPHI8
Sep 14KCKC10@PHIPHI3today

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 12KCKC2@PHIPHI8
Sep 13KCKC6@PHIPHI8
Sep 14KCKC10@PHIPHI3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 5th Inning

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat PHI 10-3. Caglianone's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 40% WP

Caglianone · homered to right center (404 feet), Massey scored.

KCTop 6th Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 58% WP

Witt Jr. · tripled to right.

KCTop 6th Inning · 6-2
+17pp→ 90% WP

Perez · homered to left (371 feet), Pasquantino scored and Garcia scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC00002420210
PHI2000000103

Period scoring

KC won 4 · PHI won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Caglianone 2

4
0

Inn 6

Perez 3

2
0

Inn 7

Perez 2

0
1

Inn 8

Stott 1

2
0

Inn 9

Jr. 1

KC
PHI

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 10·PHI 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  3. B9

    Castellanos grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  12. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  13. B9

    Avila relieved Estévez

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  14. B9

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  15. B9

    Realmuto flied out to left.

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  17. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  18. B9

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  19. B9

    Harper walked.

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  25. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  26. B9

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  27. B9

    Schwarber popped out to first.

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

  30. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    ·

    KC 10·PHI 3

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

10

Runs

3

12

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

26

TB

14

3

HR

3

4

BB

2

7

K

7

16

LOB

5

Player projections

PHI vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.5± 1.0high

RBIs

  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Bryce HarperPHI
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    64.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.3%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175