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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4KC
KC

KC

57-58

7
3
BOS

BOS

64-52

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
37,012 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 7 · BOS 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0012003107
BOS2000000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    72
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    72
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    79
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    77
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    285
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 95
    135
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jonathan India

Jonathan India

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC57-58
7
3
BOS64-52
KC57-58·BOS64-52
KC

KC

57-58

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33011010
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-55011002
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000010
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-55110002
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.225
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-44223101
SPRINT27.765
JJ. Rave★RF
2-44120002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-55012002
SPRINT26.941
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000000
Team12-383871271210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
6.0522030
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
1.0000120
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0211000
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000020
Team9.0733170
BOS

BOS

64-52

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000000
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44121001
SPRINT27.969
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.294
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44022002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000011
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-44000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000001
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-33110000
SPRINT27.354
Team7-3333373017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
3.2633140
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
2.1000130
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0333011
I. CampbellI. CampbellRP
2.0311020
Team9.012772101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Wacha
    74 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      23%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·79.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·76.4 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Harvey
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      39%·87.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      17%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      45%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.6 mph·50% whiff

BOS

  • D. May
    91 pitches·34% CSW
    • FC
      30%·90.3 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.8 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Campbell
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      37%·90.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·75.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      14%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·90.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

7

7

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Aug 4KCKC5@BOSBOS8
Aug 5KCKC2@BOSBOS6
Aug 6KCKC7@BOSBOS3today

Season series

BOS wins series 4-2

May 9BOSBOS1@KCKC2
May 10BOSBOS10@KCKC1
May 11BOSBOS3@KCKC1
Aug 4KCKC5@BOSBOS8
Aug 5KCKC2@BOSBOS6
Aug 6KCKC7@BOSBOS3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 7th Inning

KCKC
J. India

J. India

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H

BOSBOS
T. Story

T. Story

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat BOS 7-3. India's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 78% WP

Gonz · ález doubled to center, Duran scored and Story scored.

KCTop 4th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 55% WP

Isbel · singled to center, India scored and Rave scored.

KCTop 7th Inning · 6-2
+29pp→ 92% WP

India · homered to left (351 feet), Perez scored and Frazier scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0012003107
BOS2000000103

Period scoring

KC won 3 · BOS won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Gonz 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 4

Isbel 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

India 3

1
1

Inn 8

Pasquantino 1

Story 1

0
0

Inn 9

KC
BOS

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 7·BOS 3

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  3. B9

    Yoshida grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  6. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  7. B9

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  8. B9

    Abreu struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  13. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  14. B9

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  15. B9

    González struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

    −0.8pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  20. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  21. B9

    Estévez relieved Erceg

    ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 7·BOS 3

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 7·BOS 3

  24. T9

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  25. T9

    Isbel grounded out to third.

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  29. T9

    Isaiah Campbell pitches to Kyle Isbel

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    KC 7·BOS 3

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

7

Runs

3

12

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

16

TB

9

1

HR

0

2

BB

1

10

K

7

24

LOB

10

Player projections

BOS vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.4%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872