• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4NYY
BAL

BAL

75-85

4
8
NYY

NYY

92-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
44,596 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BAL 4 · NYY 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0030010004
NYY204001108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesNYY win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Baltimore Orioles, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jordan Westburg

Jordan Westburg

3B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL75-85
4
8
NYY92-68
BAL75-85·NYY92-68
BAL

BAL

75-85

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-33100020
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
3-55133101
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-55010001
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44111112
SPRINT27.662
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22000001
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-33000011
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44010001
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000003
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33110012
SPRINT2872
D. CarlsonD. CarlsonLF
0-11000010
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
0-11000001
Team7-35354742613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
3.0366333
C. SelbyC. SelbyRP
2.0100020
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0422110
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
2.0100110
Team8.0988573
NYY

NYY

92-68

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-55110000
SPRINT24.74
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33112112
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-22220020
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44225200
SPRINT23.81
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-22000001
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-22000001
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010000
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-44011002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33100010
T. GrishamT. GrishamCF
1-11110010
SPRINT26.735
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.2B
0-22000001
Team9-3232898357
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.0644172
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.2000210
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0000000
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.1000200
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000030
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0100120
Team9.07446132

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    52 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      27%·85.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·81.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Castillo
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Selby
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.0 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      35%·82.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      44%·90.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.0 mph·100% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    81 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.2 mph·19% whiff
    • ST
      16%·83.6 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      54%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·74.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.7 mph·— whiff
  • D. Bednar
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • CU
      45%·78.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      23%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Doval
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • SL
      64%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      29%·98.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Hill
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      90%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      10%·81.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

4

Runs

8

1

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 5-1

Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8today
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3

Season series

NYY lead series 7-4

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8today
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 3rd Inning

BALBAL
J. Westburg

J. Westburg

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BAL 8-4. Westburg's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

NYY vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 75% WP

Stanton · homered to right center (397 feet), Bellinger scored.

BALTop 3rd Inning · 3-2
+29pp→ 54% WP

Westburg · homered to left (368 feet), Mayo scored and Holliday scored.

NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 3-4
+20pp→ 70% WP

Judge · homered to center (423 feet), Caballero scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0030010004
NYY20400110—8

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · NYY won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Stanton 2

0
0

Inn 2

3
4

Inn 3

Westburg 3

Judge 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

O'Neill 1

Wells 1

0
1

Inn 7

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BAL
NYY

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  2. T9

    J. Jackson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  6. T9

    Henderson to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  7. T9

    Henderson to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  9. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  10. T9

    J. Jackson hit for Carlson

    ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  11. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  12. T9

    O'Neill struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  19. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  20. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  21. T9

    Henderson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Westburg out at second, Holliday to third.

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

    +3pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  24. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  25. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  26. T9

    Westburg reached on infield single to third, Holliday to second.

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

    −4pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·NYY 8

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

8

7

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

14

TB

18

2

HR

3

6

BB

5

13

K

7

18

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Trent GrishamNYY
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    62.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 23, 25sim 98
    286
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    281
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    213
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 2, 25sim 96
    174
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    72
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs