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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAA
MIN

MIN

64-82

3
4
LAA

LAA

69-77

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
20,746 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

MIN 3 · LAA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0010020003
LAA003000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 11, 25sim 94
    200
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 92
    44
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 91
    207
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 91
    912
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 91
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 90
    208
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Luke KeaschallMIN
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.3low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 2.2low
  • Jo AdellLAA
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    57.8%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.6%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Minnesota Twins, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
James Outman

James Outman

CF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN64-82
3
4
LAA69-77
MIN64-82·LAA69-77
MIN

MIN

64-82

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-33112111
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000012
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44020010
SPRINT26.632
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010011
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-55000003
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000002
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-44000001
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
0-11100020
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
2-33121111
SPRINT27.251
B. LeeB. LeeSS
0-11000000
Team6-33333632711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
6.1433251
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.2111000
Team8.0544251
LAA

LAA

69-77

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-22112011
SPRINT28.688
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44112101
SPRINT27.148
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-22000011
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-33000001
L. DavidsonL. Davidson★1B
0-33000000
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
1-33110000
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT29.395
Team5-2727454125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. UrenaJ. Urena★RP
4.0411431
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0000120
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0122111
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000020
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
0.2100000
R. StephensonR. StephensonRP
0.1000110
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000020
Team9.06337112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    98 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.2 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Sands
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • J. Urena
    71 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.7 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      23%·89.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      4%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chafin
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      62%·87.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      19%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      19%·77.9 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      50%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      29%·89.2 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·72.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • FC
      67%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stephenson
    3 pitches·100% CSW
    • FC
      100%·87.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

Sep 9MINMIN12@LAALAA3
Sep 10MINMIN2@LAALAA12
Sep 10MINMIN3@LAALAA4today

Season series

MIN wins series 4-2

Apr 25LAALAA4@MINMIN11
Apr 26LAALAA1@MINMIN5
Apr 27LAALAA0@MINMIN5
Sep 9MINMIN12@LAALAA3
Sep 10MINMIN2@LAALAA12
Sep 10MINMIN3@LAALAA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MINMIN
J. Outman

J. Outman

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Urena

J. Urena

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAA beat MIN 4-3. Teodosio's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

LAA vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+21pp→ 77% WP

Neto · homered to left (384 feet), Trout scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+23pp→ 44% WP

Buxton · homered to right center (396 feet), Fitzgerald scored.

LAABottom 8th Inning · 3-3
+29pp→ 82% WP

Teodosio · tripled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0010020003
LAA00300001—4

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · LAA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
3

Inn 3

Outman 1

Neto 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Buxton 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Trout 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
LAA

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  2. T9

    Clemens struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  7. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  8. T9

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  9. T9

    Keaschall struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

    +6pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  14. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  15. T9

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  16. T9

    Larnach flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

    +8pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  18. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Trevor Larnach

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  19. T9

    Jansen relieved Stephenson

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  22. B8

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  23. B8

    Ward flied out to left.

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

    −1pp

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  27. B8

    Cole Sands pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  28. B8

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

  29. B8

    Neto flied out to right.

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

    −1pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 3·LAA 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

15

TB

11

2

HR

1

7

BB

2

11

K

5

16

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278