HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 4
  • MLBEnd 7
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +61.8pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    COL 0@ATH 2
    +32.2pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    CHC 5@SF 0
    -56.9pplow
  • WNBAEnd of 3rd
    GS 66@SEA 53
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIA
WSH

WSH

60-86

0
5
MIA

MIA

68-79

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
10,110 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

WSH

league avg

MIA

MIA

.739

OPS

◀

.715

.707

.321

OBP

.319

.324

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.11

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

WSH 0 · MIA 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
MIA200000035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 70-36
61%Last 30 · 308-194
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 11·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Washington Nationals, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. WeathersMIA+16.7pp
  2. 2C. AbramsWSH−14.0pp
  3. 3B. HouseWSH−14.0pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Robert Hassell III

Robert Hassell III

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Eric Wagaman

Eric Wagaman

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsSS
.2664010000
D. CrewsRF
.2024010001
R. AdamsC
.2013000002
D. LileLF
.2854010002
A. Chaparro1B
.1634010001
B. House3B
.2414000001
P. DeJong3B
.2343010001
N. Nunez2B
.2043000000
J. YoungCF
.2322010000
- J. BellDH
.2341000001
- J. AlfaroC
.3130000000
- R. Hassell IIICF
.2331010000
Team33070009

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. GoreSP
5.04222478
M. ThompsonRP
1.01000116
C. HenryRP
1.00002124
K. PilkingtonRP
1.02321028
Team8.075456146

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
X. Edwards2B
.2823110012
A. RamirezC
.2284010001
J. MarseeCF
.3404220000
H. HernandezLF
.2581001020
E. Wagaman1B
.2444133001
J. WiemerRF
.2563001000
M. AcostaSS
.1913000011
B. Navarreto1B
.1434000001
J. Sanoja3B
.2352000010
- V. Mesa Jr.RF
.2400100000
Team28575056

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. WeathersSP
5.05000468
T. PhillipsRP
2.01000130
R. HenriquezRP
1.01000214
M. PetersenRP
1.00000219
Team9.070009131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Gore
    78 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      24%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      43%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      43%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Henry
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·79.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Thompson
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      44%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.9 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • R. Weathers
    68 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.8 mph·46% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.5 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.1 mph·56% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      1%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.6 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      30%·84.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      10%·84.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      47%·89.7 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    14 pitches·57% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      36%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

0

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5today

Season series

MIA wins series 7-6

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 4th Inning

WSHWSH
R. Hassell III

R. Hassell III

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
E. Wagaman

E. Wagaman

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Weathers

R. Weathers

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 5 H

How it ended

MIA beat WSH 5-0.

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 78% WP

Wagaman · singled to center, Marsee scored.

MIATop 4th Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 80% WP

House · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Chaparro out at second, Lile to third.

WSHTop 8th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 18% WP

Hassell III · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
MIA20000003—5

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · MIA won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Wagaman 2

0

Inn 9

WSH
MIA

Play-by-play · 532 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  2. T9

    House struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  8. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Brady House

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  9. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  10. T9

    Chaparro fouled out to first.

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  17. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Andres Chaparro

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  18. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  19. T9

    Lile struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  28. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  29. T9

    Petersen relieved Henriquez

    ·

    WSH 0·MIA 5

  30. T9

    Mesa Jr. in left field.

    WSH 0·MIA 5

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

0

Runs

5

7

Hits

7

2

Errors

0

7

TB

9

0

HR

0

0

BB

5

9

K

6

13

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 9 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.4± 1.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 2.7low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 1.1high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.3± 2.0high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.3± 3.6low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low
  • Miles MikolasWSH
    2.3± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(MIA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.3%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.