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FINAL+5MIA
WSH

WSH

60-85

3
8
MIA

MIA

67-79

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
9,038 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

WSH 3 · MIA 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0010020003
MIA000004138

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    207
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    92
    3(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 91
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 91
    200
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 91
    238
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 90
    247
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Washington Nationals, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Agustin Ramirez

Agustin Ramirez

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH60-85
3
8
MIA67-79
WSH60-85·MIA67-79
WSH

WSH

60-85

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000002
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010003
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-44120001
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT29.395
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-44021002
SPRINT26.735
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
1-44010001
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT2872
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-44000000
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-44011002
Team10-363631030013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.0543040
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1200000
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
0.2000010
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.1211010
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.1333211
M. ThompsonM. ThompsonRP
0.1100000
Team8.01387271
MIA

MIA

67-79

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
3-55333101
SPRINT2872
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
4-55141000
SPRINT27.765
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-55122000
SPRINT28.381
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-22000000
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-22000000
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44010002
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-44110002
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
0-33100010
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
0-44100002
A. RamirezA. RamirezC
1-11011010
SPRINT27.354
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
1-22011000
Team13-37378138127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.2733070
L. BacharL. BacharRP
0.2100000
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
0.2000020
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0200020
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000020
Team9.010330130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    74 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.8 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      30%·92.7 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      24%·77.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    32 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      19%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      38%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      58%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      42%·98.1 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      56%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Thompson
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      71%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.7 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    96 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      51%·98.0 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.7 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      32%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.9 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      26%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      36%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.0 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      20%·78.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·77.7 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      33%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

3

Runs

8

2

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8today
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5

Season series

Series tied 6-6

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8today
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 6th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H

MIAMIA
A. Ramirez

A. Ramirez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

MIA beat WSH 8-3. Marsee's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 72% WP

Lile · tripled to right, Bell scored.

MIABottom 6th Inning · 3-1
+19pp→ 53% WP

Marsee · singled to right, Acosta scored, Edwards to second, Edwards safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Crews.

MIABottom 6th Inning · 3-4
+13pp→ 88% WP

Wagaman · singled to right, Lopez scored, Ramírez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0010020003
MIA00000413—8

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · MIA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

III 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
4

Inn 6

Lile 1

Marsee 1

0
1

Inn 7

Lopez 1

0
3

Inn 8

Edwards 3

0

Inn 9

WSH
MIA

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  2. T9

    Hassell III struck out looking.

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  7. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  8. T9

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  9. T9

    Crews flied out to right.

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  12. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Dylan Crews

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  13. T9

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  14. T9

    House struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  20. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Brady House

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  21. T9

    Faucher relieved Henriquez

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  24. B8

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  25. B8

    Lopez flied out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  28. B8

    Mason Thompson pitches to Otto Lopez

    · ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  29. B8

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

  30. B8

    Marsee singled to right.

    ·

    WSH 3·MIA 8

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

8

10

Hits

13

2

Errors

1

13

TB

17

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

13

K

7

10

LOB

17

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.3%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381