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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10LAA
MIN

MIN

64-81

2
12
LAA

LAA

68-77

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
29,694 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

MIN 2 · LAA 12 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000000022
LAA3000243012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    912
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    207
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    412
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    203
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 92
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 90
    93
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Minnesota Twins, 12–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Fitzgerald

Ryan Fitzgerald

3B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Matthew Lugo

Matthew Lugo

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN64-81
2
12
LAA68-77
MIN64-81·LAA68-77
MIN

MIN

64-81

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-33020000
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.867
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-33000002
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-22000011
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000000
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-33000002
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-33010001
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000001
SPRINT27.251
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald3B
1-11112100
CC. McCuskerLF
0-11000001
Team6-3232262119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
4.2755250
P. OhlP. OhlRP
1.1544121
T. HatchT. HatchRP
1.0333001
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald3B
1.0200000
Team8.0171212372
LAA

LAA

68-77

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44320011
SPRINT28.688
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-44323111
SPRINT26.735
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44010002
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-33211010
SPRINT27.457
C. TaylorC. Taylor★CF
2-55124100
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-55023000
SPRINT27.148
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
3-55030001
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
1-55110001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
2-44220001
M. LugoM. LugoLF
1-11010000
Team17-4040121711237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
7.0400160
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0000020
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0222011
Team9.0622191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAA

  • A. Chafin
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      62%·87.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      19%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      19%·77.9 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

17

2

Runs

12

2

Errors

2

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

Sep 9MINMIN12@LAALAA3
Sep 10MINMIN2@LAALAA12today
Sep 10MINMIN3@LAALAA4

Season series

MIN leads series 4-1

Apr 25LAALAA4@MINMIN11
Apr 26LAALAA1@MINMIN5
Apr 27LAALAA0@MINMIN5
Sep 9MINMIN12@LAALAA3
Sep 10MINMIN2@LAALAA12today
Sep 10MINMIN3@LAALAA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MINMIN
R. Fitzgerald

R. Fitzgerald

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
M. Lugo

M. Lugo

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat MIN 12-2.

Win probability

LAA vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 63% WP

Trout · singled to left.

LAABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 76% WP

Rengifo · singled to right, Moncada scored and Trout scored, Ward to third.

LAATop 3rd Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 86% WP

Martin · grounded into double play, second to first, Buxton out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000000022
LAA30002430—12

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · LAA won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Rengifo 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Taylor 1

0
4

Inn 6

Taylor 3

0
3

Inn 7

Moncada 3

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Fitzgerald 2

MIN
LAA

Play-by-play · 586 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  2. T9

    Lee grounded out to third.

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  6. T9

    Brock Burke pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  7. T9

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  8. T9

    Lewis grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  13. T9

    Brock Burke pitches to Royce Lewis

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  14. T9

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  15. T9

    McCusker struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  21. T9

    Keaschall to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  22. T9

    Keaschall to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  24. T9

    Brock Burke pitches to Carson McCusker

    · ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  25. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  26. T9

    Keaschall safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Burke.

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

  30. T9

    Brock Burke pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIN 2·LAA 12

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

2

Runs

12

6

Hits

17

2

Errors

2

9

TB

23

1

HR

2

1

BB

3

9

K

7

13

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

LAA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Luke KeaschallMIN
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.3low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 2.2low
  • Jo AdellLAA
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.