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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8WSH
WSH

WSH

59-84

15
7
MIA

MIA

66-78

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
7,992 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 15 · MIA 7 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH01016320215
MIA0100100417

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    410
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 92
    413
    15(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 90
    912
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 89
    92
    3(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 87
    206
    21(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 87
    93
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 8·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 15–7. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

2.333OPS

6-4

AB-H

3

R

6

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH59-84
15
7
MIA66-78
WSH59-84·MIA66-78
WSH

WSH

59-84

15
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-55220001
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
3-55131012
SPRINT27.457
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
4-66346200
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55210011
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-44321120
SPRINT26.735
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
2-55121001
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-44012000
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
3-55234100
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-55110001
N. NunezN. Nunez2B
0-11000000
Team19-4545151915446
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
5.0622110
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
2.0000320
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
2.0455212
Team9.01077642
MIA

MIA

66-78

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44011010
SPRINT2872
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-44121110
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-33000000
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-22110000
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-33110020
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44111011
SPRINT28.483
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-44000001
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-33111011
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
2-44223100
B. NavarretoB. Navarreto1B
0-22000001
JJ. Winkler2B
1-33010000
Team10-36367107264
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
4.1866231
S. MartinezS. MartinezRP
0.2222001
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
0.2333211
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
3.1644021
Team9.0191515464

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    61 pitches·23% CSW
    • KC
      30%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      16%·93.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    48 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    38 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      66%·91.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      16%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      11%·73.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.5 mph·50% whiff

MIA

  • J. Junk
    86 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.1 mph·12% whiff
    • CU
      26%·80.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·80.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    50 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      38%·89.0 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      45%·82.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Martinez
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·77.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·89.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

19

Hits

10

15

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7today
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7today
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 4th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-6 · 2 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIA 15-7.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 51% WP

Garc · ía Jr. homered to right (413 feet).

WSHTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 54% WP

Crews · doubled to center, García Jr. scored, Adams to third.

WSHTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Bell · singled to right, Abrams scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH01016320215
MIA0100100417

Period scoring

WSH won 5 · MIA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Garc 1

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Crews 1

6
1

Inn 5

Crews 3

Edwards 1

3
0

Inn 6

Bell 2

2
0

Inn 7

Bell 2

0
4

Inn 8

Jr. 3

2
1

Inn 9

Wood 1

Marsee 1

WSH
MIA

Play-by-play · 650 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  3. B9

    Hernández grounded out to second.

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  6. B9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  7. B9

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  8. B9

    Hicks flied out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  11. B9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  12. B9

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  13. B9

    Winkler doubled to left.

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  19. B9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Jack Winkler

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  20. B9

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  21. B9

    Navarreto grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  25. B9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Brian Navarreto

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  26. B9

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  27. B9

    Marsee homered to right center (402 feet).

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 6

  30. B9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    WSH 15·MIA 7

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

15

Runs

7

19

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

36

TB

19

4

HR

2

4

BB

6

6

K

4

19

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.8%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.