MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CHW

CHW

45-80

139

ATL

56-69

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

27,868 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
60.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.7%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.8± 1.4high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

ATL

.742

OPS

.715

▶

.750

.329

OBP

◀

.319

.323

4.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.14

4.25

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.27

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 13 · ATL 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	1	6	0	3	2	1	0	13
ATL	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	4	0	9

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. TauchmanRF	.271	6	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.231	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.220	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. Sosa2B	.274	6	1	2	4	1	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.231	6	1	4	0	0	0	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.218	6	2	1	2	1	0	2
K. TeelC	.270	5	2	4	1	1	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.254	4	2	2	1	0	1	1
B. BaldwinLF	.238	2	2	1	1	1	3	0
M. TaylorRF	.215	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.278	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		45	13	19	13	4	5	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.271

.231

.220

.274

.231

.218

.270

.254

.238

.215

.278

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Y. GomezRP	5.0	7	4	3	1	3	90
M. VasilRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	22
B. EisertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
O. WhiteRP	0.1	5	4	4	0	0	18
J. LeasureRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	19
G. TaylorRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	15	9	8	3	9	176

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

176

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.256	5	3	3	5	2	0	1
M. Olson1B	.267	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.300	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.278	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.237	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.260	4	1	4	2	1	0	0
O. Albies2B	.226	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.230	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. AllenSS	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.233	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
V. BrujanSS	.200	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		42	9	15	9	3	3	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. StriderSP	3.0	10	7	7	1	2	68
A. CoxRP	3.0	4	3	3	1	3	58
D. HernandezRP	1.1	4	3	2	2	0	45
L. WilliamsSS	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	11
T. KinleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	19	13	12	5	8	195

Team

CHW

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.