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FINAL+1ATL
CHW

CHW

45-81

10
11
ATL

ATL

57-69

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
29,134 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

CHW 10 · ATL 11 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW00305200010
ATL2002005211

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
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21+

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MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Chicago White Sox, 11–10. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Kyle Teel

Kyle Teel

C

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Vidal Brujan

Vidal Brujan

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW45-81
10
11
ATL57-69
CHW45-81·ATL57-69
CHW

CHW

45-81

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-55121000
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44321011
SPRINT28.381
K. TeelK. Teel★C
2-55124100
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-55111001
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33100012
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44013001
SPRINT2993
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-33110010
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-33110001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33110000
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
Team11-3636101110136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
6.0744242
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
0.1232000
E. PegueroE. PegueroRP
0.1122200
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.2222200
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
0.2100000
Team8.0131110642
ATL

ATL

57-69

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44212110
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
4-55340000
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-33211020
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-55112100
SPRINT27.148
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33100020
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44113012
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-55132001
SPRINT27.354
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-44011000
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000001
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
1-11010000
Team13-3636111311264
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
4.2988230
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.1222111
D. DunningD. DunningRP
1.0000020
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000000
Team9.0111010361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    101 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.5 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      14%·82.5 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      10%·90.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.9 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      38%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Peguero
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • ST
      70%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.3 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      45%·91.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      32%·83.2 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      52%·92.7 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      27%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.7 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Dunning
    13 pitches·62% CSW
    • FC
      54%·88.5 mph·83% whiff
    • SI
      23%·89.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lee
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      60%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      30%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

13

10

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Aug 18CHWCHW13@ATLATL9
Aug 19CHWCHW10@ATLATL11today
Aug 20CHWCHW0@ATLATL1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 18CHWCHW13@ATLATL9
Aug 19CHWCHW10@ATLATL11today
Aug 20CHWCHW0@ATLATL1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 51pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CHWCHW
K. Teel

K. Teel

C

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
V. Brujan

V. Brujan

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat CHW 11-10. Baldwin's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (51pp).

Win probability

ATL vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 5th Inning · 8-4
+29pp→ 87% WP

Robert Jr. · doubled to left, Benintendi scored, Vargas scored and Sosa scored.

ATLBottom 8th Inning · 10-9
+26pp→ 73% WP

Olson · doubled to right, Profar to third.

ATLBottom 8th Inning · 10-11
+51pp→ 88% WP

Baldwin · reached on infield single to second, Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored, Harris II to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW00305200010
ATL20020052—11

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · ATL won 4

0
2

Inn 1

II 2

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Teel 2

0
2

Inn 4

Profar 2

5
0

Inn 5

Jr. 3

2
0

Inn 6

Teel 2

0
5

Inn 7

Albies 2

0
2

Inn 8

Baldwin 2

0

Inn 9

CHW
ATL

Play-by-play · 604 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  2. T9

    Sosa flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  8. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  9. T9

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  10. T9

    Teel lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  14. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Kyle Teel

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  15. T9

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  16. T9

    Vargas lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

    +6pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  18. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  19. T9

    Iglesias relieved Lee

    ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  22. B8

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  23. B8

    Albies popped out to second.

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

    −3pp

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  28. B8

    Steven Wilson pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  29. B8

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

  30. B8

    Baldwin reached on infield single to second, Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored, Harris II to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 10·ATL 11

    +51pp

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

10

Runs

11

11

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

17

TB

22

1

HR

2

3

BB

6

6

K

4

8

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 11 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 18, 25sim 96
    413
    15(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 94
    2015
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 90
    206
    21(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 88
    1510
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 88
    40
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 88
    411
    30(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.4± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    59.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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