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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3WSH
WSH

WSH

58-84

6
3
CHC

CHC

81-62

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
33,343 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 6 · CHC 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000100056
CHC0100100103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH58-84
6
3
CHC81-62
WSH58-84·CHC81-62
WSH

WSH

58-84

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33100011
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44220001
SPRINT29.395
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-44000002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-33010011
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-22002002
SPRINT2872
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-33010002
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33111101
J. BellJ. BellDH
1-11113100
SPRINT25.18
Team7-30306762212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AlvarezA. Alvarez★RP
4.2322321
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.1100030
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0100020
M. ThompsonM. ThompsonRP
1.0211011
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0100100
Team9.0833482
CHC

CHC

81-62

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-55120000
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44010010
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55011000
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44222202
SPRINT25.716
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-44000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
0-33000013
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33010011
K. AlcantaraK. Alcantara★RF
0-33000011
Team8-3535383248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PomeranzD. Pomeranz★RP
1.0000020
C. ReaC. ReaSP
5.1311060
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000020
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
1.0000110
Team9.07662122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • A. Alvarez
    87 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·90.9 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      32%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·82.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      6%·84.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      53%·88.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      47%·97.9 mph·29% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Thompson
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      53%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    61 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      34%·93.2 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      18%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      13%·87.3 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      6%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    8 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      50%·85.3 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      43%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·90.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      14%·81.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Sep 5WSHWSH5@CHCCHC11
Sep 6WSHWSH2@CHCCHC1
Sep 7WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 3CHCCHC8@WSHWSH3
Jun 4CHCCHC0@WSHWSH2
Jun 5CHCCHC7@WSHWSH1
Sep 5WSHWSH5@CHCCHC11
Sep 6WSHWSH2@CHCCHC1
Sep 7WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 50pp · Top 9th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

A. Alvarez

A. Alvarez

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Top reliever

5.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

WSH beat CHC 6-3. Bell's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (50pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 5th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 33% WP

Garc · ía Jr. hit a ground rule double, Lile to third.

CHCBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 81% WP

Suzuki · singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ to second.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 5-3
+50pp→ 91% WP

Bell · homered to center (372 feet), Abrams scored and Wood scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000100056
CHC0100100103

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CHC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Kelly 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

House 1

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Kelly 1

5
0

Inn 9

Bell 3

WSH
CHC

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  3. B9

    Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to second, Happ out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  7. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  8. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  9. B9

    Happ walked, Alcántara to second.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    +4pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  14. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  15. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  16. B9

    Hoerner flied out to right.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    −4pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  18. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  19. B9

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  20. B9

    Alcántara grounded into fielder's choice to second, Shaw out at second.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    −5pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  24. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Kevin Alcantara

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  25. B9

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  26. B9

    Shaw singled to right.

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    +4pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

6

Runs

3

7

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

16

TB

15

2

HR

2

2

BB

4

12

K

8

4

LOB

14

Player projections

CHC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    66.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 22, 25sim 93
    205
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 93
    41
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 92
    204
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 92
    202
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 92
    201
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 92
    205
    16(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278