• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4NYY
WSH

WSH

53-79

1
5
NYY

NYY

72-60

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
35,531 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

WSH 1 · NYY 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0010000001
NYY003002005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 94
    95
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 93
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 93
    43
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 92
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 92
    202
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 92
    40
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Washington Nationals, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH53-79
1
5
NYY72-60
WSH53-79·NYY72-60
WSH

WSH

53-79

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010010
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
3-44031000
SPRINT28.483
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000003
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.18
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-33010012
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-22000010
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000003
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
2-33120011
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000003
Team8-32321810412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
5.0333230
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0322211
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000310
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000010
Team8.0655761
NYY

NYY

72-60

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-55110000
SPRINT24.74
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33100012
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-33220010
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-33125100
SPRINT23.81
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-22000020
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-22000000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-44000001
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000012
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
0-11000011
Team6-3030565176
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
5.0511450
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2200020
T. HillT. HillRP
1.1100010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000020
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000020
Team9.08114120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Gore
    99 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.3 mph·5% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.6 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      16%·87.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.3 mph·75% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    35 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      31%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    33 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      39%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.7 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • L. Gil
    92 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.1 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      24%·91.2 mph·22% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FS
      67%·80.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Hill
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      87%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      53%·99.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.3 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      38%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·93.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Aug 25WSHWSH5@NYYNYY10
Aug 26WSHWSH1@NYYNYY5today
Aug 27WSHWSH2@NYYNYY11

Season series

NYY lead series 2-0

Aug 25WSHWSH5@NYYNYY10
Aug 26WSHWSH1@NYYNYY5today
Aug 27WSHWSH2@NYYNYY11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

NYY beat WSH 5-1. Stanton's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

NYY vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 54% WP

Abrams · singled to left, Hassell III scored, Wood to second.

NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+25pp→ 84% WP

Stanton · doubled to left, Bellinger scored, Goldschmidt scored and Judge scored.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 90% WP

Wood · grounded out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0010000001
NYY00300200—5

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · NYY won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
3

Inn 3

Abrams 1

Stanton 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Stanton 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
NYY

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  2. T9

    Wood grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  5. T9

    David Bednar pitches to James Wood

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  6. T9

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  7. T9

    Young struck out looking.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  14. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Jacob Young

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  15. T9

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  16. T9

    Hassell III struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

    +0.7pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  22. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  23. T9

    Bednar relieved Doval

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  26. B8

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  27. B8

    Goldschmidt grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

  30. B8

    Konnor Pilkington pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 5

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

5

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

12

0

HR

1

4

BB

7

12

K

6

23

LOB

11

Player projections

NYY vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    64.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.2%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872