• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6CHC
WSH

WSH

56-84

5
11
CHC

CHC

81-60

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
32,320 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

WSH 5 · CHC 11 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0002030005
CHC5102020111

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 93
    202
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 92
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 91
    98
    14(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 91
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 90
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 22, 25sim 89
    205
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Washington Nationals, 11–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

4

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH56-84
5
11
CHC81-60
WSH56-84·CHC81-60
WSH

WSH

56-84

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000002
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44222001
SPRINT29.395
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-33113100
SPRINT26.735
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-33000002
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-33010011
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-33000001
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000000
Team6-3030565129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
3.1577422
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
0.2211110
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
2.0122101
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0100010
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0111211
Team8.0101111854
CHC

CHC

81-60

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-55000001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-22411130
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44110011
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-33122001
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44222110
SPRINT28.278
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-33112010
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44113110
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000012
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
2-44121100
Team10-3232111011485
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AssadJ. Assad★SP
5.1344241
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2111010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0100010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100010
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
1.0000020
Team9.0655291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    79 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      34%·78.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·91.1 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      24%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      14%·72.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      68%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      35%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·86.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      60%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • J. Assad
    81 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      32%·91.3 mph·19% whiff
    • FF
      23%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·79.9 mph·— whiff
  • P. Hodge
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      60%·86.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • CU
      38%·77.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • ST
      82%·77.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      67%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

5

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Sep 5WSHWSH5@CHCCHC11today
Sep 6WSHWSH2@CHCCHC1
Sep 7WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3

Season series

CHC lead series 3-1

Jun 3CHCCHC8@WSHWSH3
Jun 4CHCCHC0@WSHWSH2
Jun 5CHCCHC7@WSHWSH1
Sep 5WSHWSH5@CHCCHC11today
Sep 6WSHWSH2@CHCCHC1
Sep 7WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 2 K · 7 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

J. Assad

J. Assad

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat WSH 11-5.

Win probability

CHC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+10pp→ 95% WP

Swanson · homered to center (424 feet), Hoerner scored and Castro scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0002030005
CHC51020201—11

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CHC won 3

0
5

Inn 1

Swanson 3

0
1

Inn 2

McGuire 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
2

Inn 4

Garc 2

Castro 2

0
0

Inn 5

3
2

Inn 6

Lile 2

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Happ 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
CHC

Play-by-play · 575 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  2. T9

    Adams struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  9. T9

    Porter Hodge pitches to Riley Adams

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  10. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  11. T9

    Chaparro struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  17. T9

    Porter Hodge pitches to Andres Chaparro

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  18. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  19. T9

    García Jr. flied out to center.

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  24. T9

    Porter Hodge pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  25. T9

    Hodge relieved Rogers

    ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  28. B8

    · ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  29. B8

    Swanson lined out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·CHC 11

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

5

Runs

11

6

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

14

TB

24

1

HR

4

2

BB

8

9

K

5

5

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    67.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.1%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.